Maine has a relatively small congressional delegation, but a combination of factors is likely to thrust two of its four members into the center of the action as President-elect Donald Trump moves to implement his agenda.

Although they belong to different parties, with one in the majority and one in the minority, Sen. Susan Collins and Rep. Jared Golden are both likely to be key swing votes in an almost evenly divided Congress.

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald

“It’s definitely unusual for a state to have that high of a percentage of their delegation be in a position of power and influence,” said Mark Brewer, chair of political science at the University of Maine. “Even among smaller states, it is somewhat unusual.”

Collins and Golden are rarities in their respective parties – moderates who don’t always follow their party lines and who have proven to be resilient against national political headwinds.

In 2020, Collins was the only Republican senator to be reelected in a state that voted for Joe Biden. She is the only Republican senator from New England. Golden, a Democrat who worked as an aide for Collins after he graduated from college, was reelected twice in years when his district supported Trump.

Maine voters’ tendency to choose moderate leaders who are more pragmatic than partisan means the state’s representatives are frequently well-positioned to be dealmakers in Washington, D.C., according to political scientists.

Rep. Jared Golden, D-2nd District. Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald

“Maine is an exceptional state in that regard,” said Nicholas Jacobs, who teaches political science at Colby College.

Republicans have narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, controlling 53 of 100 seats in the U.S. Senate and 220 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, five more than Democrats.

That majority could narrow further because at least two Republican House members are departing. Rep. Elise Stefanik, of New York, has been nominated to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations and Rep. Matt Gaetz, of Florida, resigned from the House after being nominated and later withdrawing as Trump’s initial pick for attorney general.

COLLINS WILL BE KEY TO NOMINATIONS

Much has been reported about Collins’ growing influence in the incoming Congress.

Collins is taking over leadership of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, where she will play a central role in funding decisions, including earmarks for projects in Maine. She will be the first Republican woman to hold that title and the first Mainer in 92 years.

And Collins remains moderate compared with most of her Republican colleagues, having not supported any of Trump’s three presidential campaigns and voting to impeach him over his role in the Jan. 6 riots.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, speaks during a hearing in May on Capitol Hill in Washington. Jacquelyn Martin/Associated Press

“She’s been willing to not go with Trump,” said Jim Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington. “She’s not a predictable Republican on everything.”

The political world will be watching Collins closely, especially during the confirmation process of Trump’s cabinet nominees.

Collins also played a key role in important judicial nominations during the last Trump administration, including with her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court amid sexual assault allegations against him and concerns he would help overturn Roe v. Wade.

Gaetz dropped out as the attorney general nominee after Collins, who is seeking reelection in two years, was one of the first senators to signal strong reservations about his nomination, saying she was “shocked” by the choice.

Collins has not gone as far in criticizing other nominees but also hasn’t joined some of her Republican colleagues in promising blanket support. She told the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram that she plans to meet with each and make her decision after reading background checks and participating in full Senate hearings.

“It is so important that we not shortchange the confirmation process for Cabinet appointments, in particular,” Collins said.

Sen. Angus King, I-Maine. Joe Gromelski/Special to the Sun Journal

Matthew Felling, a spokesperson for Maine’s junior senator, U.S. Sen. Angus King, said in a written statement Friday that King is taking a similar approach in waiting for nominees to be formally sent to the Senate and for them to make their case in committee hearings before he makes a decision on each as they come to the Senate floor.

“Senator King will review and consider all nominations when the next administration formally sends them to the Senate in 2025 – though he acknowledges that some of those mentioned thus far do not appear to have the requisite background or experience for the important posts in question,” Felling said.

King has served on influential committees during his tenure, including those overseeing veterans affairs, intelligence and armed services. And while his status as an independent gives him the ability to be a pivotal vote and dealmaker, both Brewer and Jacobs said he is largely seen as a solid Democratic vote.

“That being said, given there are so few current members of the U.S. Senate to be open to show a willingness to engage in bipartisan behavior, King is certainly on that list,” Brewer said. “But I certainly wouldn’t slot him as I would slot Collins in terms of influence.”

REPUBLICANS MAY LOOK TO GOLDEN

Maine’s two members of the House of Representatives are both Democrats but represent different wings of the party.

Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-1st District. Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald

Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-1st District, is part of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and is expected to be a solid member of the minority party’s efforts to resist much of Trump’s agenda.

Golden, on the other hand, is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, which includes some more conservative Democrats in the House.

And Golden, like Collins, could find himself with more power in the next two years as House Speaker Mike Johnson seeks to hold together an unpredictable Republican majority with a very slim margin of error.

Brewer said Johnson may see defections from moderate Republicans who won Biden districts and from hard-right Republicans, which could create an opening for Golden to exercise leverage. Golden vowed during his campaign to work with Trump to secure the border and ensure the country’s energy dominance with both renewables and fossil fuels.

Golden told the Press Herald that when his first term in office overlapped with Trump in 2019 and 2020, he worked with the president when he could and also opposed him at times.

“That’s kind of the same approach I took with Joe Biden,” Golden said. “For me, it’s not about Trump. It’s about what it means to be a congressman in a representative democracy. Congress is not supposed to just acquiesce to the executive branch, no matter what party they belong to.”

Melcher noted that Trump has support in Maine’s 2nd District, which he has won three times.

“Sometimes it seemed like (Golden) wanted to go out of his way to vote against Biden so he could use that in his district,” he said. “I don’t think he’ll do that with Trump because Trump has carried that district three times. I’m sure he won’t always vote with Trump, but he’s not a predictable Democratic vote all the time.”

Rep. Jared Golden, D-2nd District, in his office the U.S. Capitol in July 2023. Minh Connors/The Washington Post

If it will benefit the 2nd District, Melcher said he can see Golden voting with Republicans.

“He would be somebody (Republicans) would look to as he’s demonstrated in his voting record that he’s willing to vote with them at times,” he said.

Jacobs said that Golden is not only moderate but in some cases also more conservative than some moderate House Republicans. That would seem to make him a go-to member if Johnson is looking to cobble together a majority to advance any given policy.

But Johnson could face resistance from his own caucus, which has previously shown a willingness to remove leaders for cutting too many deals with moderates and not tending to more conservative members. Johnson only became speaker after conservative House Republicans ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy for not being conservative enough.

“The thinking that would seemingly make it logical for Speaker Johnson to reach across the aisle and pick up some moderate Democrats is also the thing that’s going to prevent him from doing that because he needs to maintain his job,” Jacobs said. “I think that limits the strategic incentive or the logical rationale for Johnson to reach across the aisle.”