Parts of more than 30 states experienced well below normal precipitation from September through November. Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF/ERA5

Even after a polar plunge, a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river, and heavy lake-effect snow, over 71% of the United States was still facing abnormally dry conditions as of early December.

That number is down from a record-breaking 87% in November. But the winter season, which officially begins on Dec. 21, does not typically come with this much drought.

Only the years 2012, 2021 and 2022 were more unusually dry this late in the year, putting 2024 in fourth place for countrywide dryness since such records began in 2000.

Moderate drought is still happening in all but one state, Alaska, making up 27% of the land area in the country.

With its dryness, the United States continues to be a global outlier. Last month was the third wettest November on record for the planet, which was associated with flooding in Greece, Malaysia and Thailand, and Cuba.

Because the dryness was most pronounced during the crop harvest rather than the growing period, the impact on crop conditions wasn’t as bad as it could have been. In the case of corn and soybeans, yield reached near-record levels.

STATES STILL DEALING WITH EXTREME DROUGHT

Parts of 23 states, from California to New Hampshire, are experiencing extreme (level 3 out of 4) or exceptional (level 4 out of 5) drought.

Precipitation deficits are stark. Climate data from September through November confirmed that over 30 states had well below normal rainfall.

However, drought severity is not just about intensity – it’s about duration, too.

Over the past six months, deficits of six inches or more were observed in more than two dozen states. That could equate to two to three months’ worth of rain, depending on the location.

Parts of Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have also experienced similarly stark deficits.

IS THERE ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT?

Most regions are forecast to continue to have below normal rainfall in the short-term. The exceptions will be the East Coast, Deep South and Pacific Northwest.

Much-needed rainfall is forecast in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New Hampshire – states that still have areas of extreme or exceptional drought.

The Northwest, Deep South and East Coast will probably experience soaking precipitation over the next 10 days. Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF

The map below shows the chance of daily precipitation exceeding an inch over the next 10 days.

In the green area extending from Louisiana to Maine, two surges of soaking precipitation are likely from Monday through Wednesday. For many areas, this will fall as rain, but for interior New England, snow is possible.

This should result in a broad improvement in the drought status in these areas.

DROUGHT’S TYPE, IMPACTS

Meteorological drought, a prolonged period of below normal precipitation, typically takes at least a month or two to develop. But new research is investigating the emergence of flash droughts, which come about in just weeks, typically because of high temperatures, high evaporation rates and low rainfall.

Agricultural drought develops when low precipitation translates to low soil moisture and water stress for plants.

The third category is hydrological drought, which occurs when the above deficits translate to very low river flows and reservoir levels and reduced wetlands – culminating in the potential for environmental, social and economic impacts.

The 2024 U.S. drought, which developed during late summer and intensified throughout fall, had cascading effects across all three drought types.

Persistently below normal rainfall contributed to a significant reduction in soil moisture levels and stream flows. Reservoir levels in New York City recently slipped below 60%, compared with a normal of 82%.

But because these effects were most pronounced during the crop harvest rather than the growing period, barley, corn, oats and soybeans reported the highest proportion of good or excellent conditions in several years, with record or near-record yield for corn and soybeans in particular.

While that’s the good news, droughts take a long time to build and a long time to ease, meaning the impact of this year’s drought won’t be erased overnight. And it could easily linger into 2025.

If that happens, farmers could be in for challenging times ahead – and that could have consequences for grocery prices.