Workers clear snow along Capitol Street in Augusta following a late November storm. Early snowfall had raised hopes that it will be a big year for Maine’s snowmobiling industry, but officials say that can all go away with one significant rainstorm – like the one that is predicted for later this week. Joe Phelan/Kennebec Journal

AUGUSTA — Maine’s snowmobile industry and the businesses that depend on the tourists it brings to the state are bracing for the uncertain snow levels and potentially warmer temperatures brought by climate change.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Maine’s meteorological winter, which started Dec. 1 and runs until the end of February, will likely come with above-average temperatures and near-normal precipitation levels.

Greg Cornwell, a meteorologist with the weather service in Gray, said the weather patterns that caused Augusta’s warmest and driest fall season on record have ended. He said forecasters expect a La Niña cycle to set in, bringing more storm systems to the region over the winter months.

But which kind of precipitation falls in those storms – and how much – can have significant impact on the state’s winter tourism industry, which last year attracted nearly 4.4 million visitors who snowmobiled, skied and fished as they spent more than $2 billion, according to the Maine Office of Tourism.

Snowmobiling, which relies on natural snow, is particularly vulnerable. Bad years for snow, like last winter, can “devastate” the snowmobiling scene in the state, Maine Snowmobile Association President Al Swett said. Without consistent snowfall and cold temperatures, trails are hard to maintain, and businesses that depend on snowmobiling tourists struggle to keep up.

“Our supporting businesses rely on the snowmobiling season to make it through to the next season, to welcome the fishermen and the bicyclists in the spring,” Swett said. “That’s a huge chunk of change for those people, and they really, really count on us.”

Alongside its economic impact for businesses across the state, the snowmobiling industry provided about $700 million in tax revenue last year, Swett said. With that kind of financial impact, he said, snowmobiling isn’t getting the attention it deserves as conditions waver year to year.

Mark Latti, director of communications for the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife, said the industry has a “ripple effect” across Maine. He said small businesses are a major part of the snowmobiling economy, and without the right kinds of weather, those businesses suffer.

Sara Grahn, of Craryville, New York, rides her snowmobile in Wilton in March 2022. Snowmobiling is one of the big drivers of Maine’s winter tourism economy, but much of the industry’s success depends on how much snow falls each winter. Daryn Slover/Sun Journal, file

Swett said it’s the snowmobiling “destination points” – places across the state with hotels, restaurants, gas stations and natural beauty – that hurt the most when less snow falls than usual.

“If it wasn’t for us, a lot of those businesses would be out of business,” he said. “And it happens from Limerick to Madawaska and from Rangeley to Eastport. They all count on us, and this is big money.”

Last winter, snowmobile registrations declined to a nine-year low of 67,922. Just two years prior, in the 2021-22 winter season, snowmobile registrations hit 88,422, the highest number in the last 10 years.

The only year with fewer snowmobile registrations than last winter was 2015-16, an above-average season for temperature and a significantly below-average year for snowfall and snow depth.

Cornwell said the recent winter comparable to this year’s forecast was 2016-17, a warmer-than-usual winter, but one that brought more snowpack than in many of the winters since, leading to higher snowmobile registration numbers.

The funds collected from snowmobiling registrations go straight back into trail maintenance, development and Maine Warden Service enforcement, Latti said. A downtick in registrations, he said, means there isn’t as much money going back into maintaining the 14,000 miles of trails – 95% of which are on private land – that tourists enjoy every winter.

Josh Lanteigne sets the flag on an ice fishing rig on Little Togus Pond in Augusta in December 2022. Joe Phelan/Kennebec Journal, file

But Swett said there’s not much the organization can do about the recent decline in registrations and the snowmobile economy – or even to adapt to it. And weather fluctuations, like the rain expected this week, can take wash away any snow that has built up and harm the industry in just a day.

“You can’t do too much; we rely on Mother Nature,” he said. “We’re not like a ski area that can blow snow. We just count on Mother Nature. And what’s coming Wednesday is going to wash out everything.

“We finally got off to a decent start that we haven’t had in the last few years, and this year is just, the rain is going to devastate us. Those businesses will be hurting.”