After a fairly pedestrian year in Maine politics, we may well be facing a series of political earthquakes in two years. This time around, the marquee contest was the 2nd Congressional District, where Republican Austin Theriault came up just short of unseating Rep. Jared Golden. Although Maine Republicans improved their position in the Legislature, they were unable to take control of either the House or the Senate.

2026, however, could be a different story. Sen. Susan Collins is running for reelection, and at first it seemed as though Collins might have an easier time of it than she did in 2020. After all, it’s easy to forget, but six years ago Democrats thought Sara Gideon would make the seat competitive, and poured millions of dollars into the contest. Instead, Collins won easily. After that debacle, it’s hard to imagine any prominent Democrat eager to run against Collins in 2026, but apparently outgoing Gov. Janet Mills may be interested.

If she runs, Mills would certainly make it a race. She’s both more moderate and more well-known statewide than Sara Gideon was. Mills hails from the more conservative 2nd Congressional District, where she represented Farmington in the Maine House before becoming attorney general. That would serve her well in a race against Collins, just as it has in her gubernatorial campaigns. If she indeed opts to run, she’d turn it into a top target for Democrats nationally; if not, Collins will probably be able to easily win reelection against almost anyone else. Still, the next few years are going to be politically challenging for Mills. The budget won’t be easy this time around, as it has been in years past. That may well blunt her popularity.

Then there’s the race to succeed her in the Blaine House, which will not only be open but could well be wide open in both parties. While his friends and allies already seem to be pushing Jared Golden to consider the race, he may well not have a clear field in the Democratic primary if he opts to run. His centrism may have helped him win reelection in the 2nd District, but to win a primary statewide he’ll have to court more progressive voters.

The ascendant progressive wing of the Maine Democratic Party may give Mills a free pass to challenge Sen. Collins, but they’re unlikely to sit out the gubernatorial contest – just as they didn’t in 2018 when she initially ran. She ultimately prevailed, but in the first round almost two-thirds of Democrats voted for someone else in the primary. It’s hard to imagine that Golden would have an easier time in a primary than Mills did, and most of her opponents weren’t terribly well known. If a more well-known progressive – or several of them – opted to run for governor, it would certainly be an interesting primary.

The Republicans have even less of an obvious gubernatorial candidate than the Democrats. None of the candidates who ran in the primary in 2018 are likely to run again. Ken Fredette just returned to the Maine House, Garrett Mason is employed as a lobbyist, and Mary Mayhew is out of the state. The Maine Republican Party has largely moved past all of those figures, as well as others who are more tied to the Paul LePage era, but they don’t have anyone figure leading the party at the moment. Instead, they’d have a whole host of candidates interested in running for governor, but not many of them are well-known statewide, experienced in running for higher office or accomplished fundraisers.

Another factor to consider in all of this is that if Golden does indeed opt to run for governor, then the 2nd District would be wide open – more fertile territory for an ambitious Republican than a statewide race. If that seat’s open, we’d probably see a similarly busy primary on both sides of the aisle. Even though it might be tough for Democrats to hold the seat without Golden, congressional seats just don’t open up all that often in Maine.

So, the political landscape of Maine in 2026 – and the effect it has on legislative races – depends on two people: Mills and Golden. If either or both of them decide to make a move, we’d have a competitive Senate, House and gubernatorial race, and again be the focus of national attention. If they don’t, the vast majority of the attention will be on the gubernatorial race, where neither party has a clear frontrunner.