National political insiders and observers are already eyeing Sen. Susan Collins’ bid for reelection in 2026 as a potentially pivotal race — and a very expensive one.

One prominent national political forecaster said last week that, while Maine’s Republican senator is currently a narrow favorite to win reelection next year, the race will likely be rated as a toss-up.

The forecast from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, comes as the Senate Republican campaign arm reportedly predicted that both parties would spend $400 million to $600 million on the race for Collins’ seat — a sum that would eclipse the total spending in the 2020 race, which broke records in Maine and was the second most expensive Senate race in the United States that year.

So far, Collins — who said she plans to seek reelection — is facing one declared challenger: Waterboro resident Phillip Rench, a 37-year-old former engineer at Elon Musk’s SpaceX who now owns Ossipee Hill Farm and Observatory. Rench is running as an independent and said last week he was not ready to talk about his candidacy.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball released its initial U.S. Senate rankings Thursday.

Authors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote that Maine’s Senate race leans Republican, but they predicted that the race would be moved into the toss-up column given that the 72-year-old Collins is the only Republican running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

“The only state that we put in the Leans category, from either side, is Maine,” they wrote. “While we are doing this, at least for now, as a nod to the crossover support that Susan Collins has generated through the years, given the bigger state of play, we fully expect it’ll eventually make its way towards the Toss-up column.”

The Cook Political Report also has the race as leaning Republican, calling Collins a “perpetual survivor — and the Democrats’ white whale.”

The initial assessments of the race reflect Mainers’ well-known willingness to split their ballots.

In 2020, Collins was the only Republican to win a Senate seat in a state won by Joe Biden. She also is the only Republican member of Congress in New England.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrat Jared Golden won reelection to the U.S. House of Representatives last fall against a Trump-backed Republican challenger in the 2nd Congressional District, which Trump carried by more than 9 points.

But there also are factors that could work against Collins.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee appears to agree with suggestions that it will be difficult for her to hold the seat in 2026. Republicans are in control of the White House, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, and voters tend to favor the party that’s out of power in midterm elections.

Campaign Chairman Tim Scott reportedly told donors gathered at President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach this month that Maine is one of three battlegrounds where the party will be playing defense, according to Politico, which cited an attendee who wished to remain anonymous because they were sharing details of a private meeting.

Scott reportedly predicted that both parties would spend a combined $400 million to $600 million in Maine alone, according to the attendee, who said Republicans are also playing defense in Ohio and North Carolina.

Collins was among the Republican senators who traveled to Mar-a-Lago the weekend of Feb. 8-9 to meet with Trump. She does not yet have a campaign staff.

If that level of spending comes to fruition, it would be two to three times more than the $200 million spent in 2020, when state Speaker of the House Sarah Gideon unsuccessfully challenged Collins.

Collins has nearly $2.6 million in her campaign war chest.

SENATOR UNDER SCRUTINY

Meanwhile, with her district already identified as a key battleground, Collins’ every move is being closely scrutinized by Democrats and Republicans as she tries to carefully navigate some tricky terrain in Trump’s second term.

Collins has had a tortured relationship with the man who has remade the Republican Party in his own image. She has not supported any of his three campaigns for president, most recently writing in former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for president last fall.

And Collins was one of seven Republican senators to vote to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the Capitol — a vote for which the Maine Republican Party considered censuring her. Collins is one of three senators from that group who continue to serve in the Senate, and this will be her first campaign for reelection since casting that impeachment vote.

But Collins has navigated this dynamic before, having warded off the challenge from Gideon in 2020. That also was an expensive campaign in which Democrats were riding a wave of resistance to Trump. And many voters at the time were outraged over Collins’ pivotal vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, which helped remake the court majority and end federal abortion protections under Roe v. Wade.

Despite being down in polling and outspent by a 2-to-1 margin by Gideon, Collins went on to win by 9 points, even as Trump lost the statewide tally by 9 points to Biden.

Collins has so far avoided any dramatic breaks with Trump during his month-old second term.

With few exceptions, Collins has delivered key votes in support of Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. But she has still faced sharp criticism and calls for a primary challenge from Trump loyalists because of her opposition to two other nominees.

Collins said she was “shocked” that Trump nominated former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida to be attorney general while he was being investigated for alleged illicit drug use and paying a minor for sex. Gaetz, who denied the charges, withdrew and never faced a vote.

And Collins voted against former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth’s nomination as defense secretary. Hegseth was approved anyway when Vice President JD Vance broke a 50-50 tie.

Perhaps no other Trump nominee shows the tightrope Collins is walking better than Russell Vought, the new White House budget chief.

Vought has made it clear that he believes the president has the authority to cut congressionally approved funding for programs that he does not support — a view that critics, including Sen. Angus King, argue is unconstitutional and violates the separation of powers that places spending decisions with Congress.

That view has led to the Trump administration’s controversial freezing of federal grants and loans, and its efforts to end entire programs, including the U.S. Agency on International Development — moves that also have been condemned by Collins.

Earlier this year, Collins ascended to leadership of the Senate Appropriations Committee, where she is expected to play a key role in Congress’ funding priorities, including securing money for projects in Maine.

Collins voted in support of Vought, even though his view of the president’s power to impound spending approved by Congress essentially usurps her power as budget chair. She says she is hopeful that a Watergate-era law limiting presidential power over spending will mean that the judicial branch can keep the administration in check.

“If there are impoundments, I believe it will end up in court,” Collins told the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram, “and my hope is the court will rule in favor of the 1974 Impoundment and Budget Control Act.”

So far, Rench, the little-known independent, is the only Collins challenger to emerge.

However, high on the list of potential contenders is Gov. Janet Mills, who would not rule out a run when asked by the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram in December. The Democrat is in her final two years as governor because of term limits after easily winning back-to-back statewide elections.

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