Portland Press Herald poll results for governor’s election

Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud has a slight but statistically insignificant lead over Republican Gov. Paul LePage with 38 days remaining before Election Day, according to a poll of 482 likely voters on landlines and cellphones between Sept. 18 and Sept. 25. The results show Michaud leading LePage 40 percent to 38 percent, with independent Eliot Cutler drawing 12 percent. Michaud’s 2-point lead is less than the 4-point advantage he had in the newspaper’s last poll, conducted June 12 to 18. His June lead and the new one are both within the polls’ 4.4 percent margins of error. The poll and interviews with poll respondents suggest that the governor’s best hope for reelection still hinges on dividing the opposition vote between Michaud and Cutler. The poll also shows that Cutler and Michaud defeat LePage in separate head to head matchups. Also, in a sharp reversal from a Press Herald poll conducted in June, Michaud is now tied with LePage when respondents are asked to predict who will win the race. A plurality of voters believed Michaud would win the race in June.

If the 2014 governor election was being held today, who would you vote for?
Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the 2014 Governor election?
If the candidates were Paul LePage and Mike Michaud and the election was being held today, how would you vote?
If the candidates were Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler and the election was being held today, how would you vote?
Poll results for the Governor's race by age group

More about the poll

The poll was conducted for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The center, founded in 1976, is a nonpartisan enterprise that has carried out major survey projects for a wide range of business, nonprofit and media clients, including the Boston Globe, CNN and New Hampshire Public Radio. The findings are based on landline and cell phone interviews with 529 randomly selected Maine adults and 490 randomly selected Maine likely voters in the 2014 General Election. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent for all respondents and 4.4 percent for likely voters.