At first glance, 2025 appears to have been a banner year for housing production in Portland.

The planning board approved more units than in any other year. A near-record number of those were affordable units, according to the city’s 2025 Housing Report, presented Tuesday to the council’s Housing and Economic Development Committee.

However, while approvals were high, they were primarily driven by a few large projects with uncertain futures. The number of units completed plummeted, reflecting an ongoing trend.

But recent zoning changes could be having their desired impact.

Of the completed units, the vast majority, 83%, were built off-peninsula, the greatest share in 15 years. In 2024, only 21% of the completed units were built off-peninsula.

And this isn’t sprawl. Kevin Kraft, the city’s planning director, said the numbers reflect demand for housing along transit corridors that have been “upzoned” in the last few years.

Here are four takeaways from the report.

1. City approvals skyrocketed

Portland’s planning board approved 1,420 units last year, a city record and an almost 200% increase from the 477 approved the year before.

But it wasn’t necessarily a flood of projects that led to the high numbers. According to the report, that record was driven by several particularly large proposals — nine projects with 50 or more units accounted for 95% of the approved units. 

There’s the Tavata, Redfern Properties’ 325-unit building on Washington Avenue, and a 255-unit project at Thompson’s Point. The next phase of Reveler Development’s Bayside Redevelopment Plan, 61 Preble Street, is expected to add 217 units, while Stroudwater Commons, a hybrid condo and accessory dwelling unit effort, will add 156.

Almost 70% of the units approved last year are studio and one-bedrooms. 

There’s generally a three- to four-year lag between when housing is approved and when it’s ready for occupancy. That means Portland residents could see a rush of units opening in 2028 and 2029, but if current trends hold, it’ll likely take longer.

2. Completions were lackluster

Last year was one of the worst year for completions in the last decade. Just 187 units were added to the city’s portfolio, down 68% from 2024.

Of the units that did get their certificates of occupancy, a higher than usual percentage of them were from renovations (48%), small, one- to three-unit projects (17%) or were deed-restricted affordable housing (36%).

Large-scale projects in the city have struggled to get off the ground in recent years, according to a recent Portland Press Herald analysis. In the last three years, there has been a marked increase in projects with 50 or more units that have pivoted to hotels, been withdrawn or placed on indefinite hold. 

Kraft, the planning director, said previously that market-rate projects have been particularly hard to get over the finish line because they don’t have any state or federal subsidies. 

Developers have said that high construction costs and regulations like the city’s inclusionary zoning policy have made it nearly impossible for the numbers to work.

3. Portland on pace to meet city, statewide goals

Despite a disappointing year for seeing projects completed, Portland is still on track to meet — and even exceed — two sets of state and citywide housing production goals.

Two years ago, a state report outlined county-by-county targets to help the state achieve its aggressive goal of building 84,000 new homes between 2023 and 2030.

Cumberland County had the largest number of homes to build (though a considerably lower percentage increase than some of Maine’s more rural counties) with an additional 18,800 units.

The state report did not set any municipal goals, but according to the city’s report, Portland currently holds about 24% of the county’s housing stock. If current trends continue, staff expects the city to deliver almost 4,700 units by 2030, about 25% of the county’s goal.

Housing production in Portland has, overall, been strong over the last few years, picking up in 2017 when the city adopted its comprehensive plan.

The plan set a goal of 2,557 new units by 2027, calculated based on the existing housing stock and 75% of the city’s daytime population.

Since 2017, the city has added 3,669 units, according to the report, surpassing the goal by almost 50%.

4. Changes are coming

It’s unclear what 2026 and beyond may look like for Portland’s housing landscape. Several long-running policies and plans are set to be reviewed and a handful of city properties are primed to be overhauled.

Portland officials in December launched a study of the city’s inclusionary zoning policy, the result of which is expected in the coming weeks. The 11-year-old policy requires 25% of housing units in new developments to be deemed affordable, but has received pushback from developers who say 25% — or the per-unit fee to opt-out — is too steep to make projects viable.

The City Council will decide whether to make any changes to the policy.

Officials will also kick off a comprehensive plan update this year, a process that will include goal-setting for how Portland’s housing targets should shift to carry the city through 2040.

Also on the docket for this year is an updated HUD Five-Year Consolidation Plan — a document the city is required to submit to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development explaining how it plans to use a number of federal funds.

Projects using the funds in question, however — Community Development Block Grants, HOME Investment Partnerships Program funds and Emergency Solutions Grants — are all subject to the federal Build America, Buy America Act. Affordable housing developers have said the program institutes onerous and costly requirements that not only increase the overall cost of projects, but in many cases make them impossible to complete.

It remains to be seen whether the BABA requirements will have an impact on what Portland does with its share of funds. The plan is expected to be adopted in spring 2027.

Meanwhile, councilors are seeking input on the redevelopment of four parcels in the Bayside neighborhood that the city reacquired last summer after wrapping up years of litigation following a failed development planned for the land.

The city is also continuing the Reimagining Franklin Street initiative to take what is currently a wide urban thoroughfare people use to get in and out of the city and turn it into a lively residential neighborhood. The site could support future housing and mixed use development, according to the housing report.