UPSET OF THE WEEK

Dolphins (3-0) at Patriots (1-2), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 7

Outlook: I have drawn a deep swig of the Kool-Aid and gulped it down with gusto. I believe the Dolphins will be the best team on this field. I believe that the Patriots’ shortcomings (especially on defense) are real. And I believe the combination will see Miami finally beating Tom Brady in Foxborough. Yes, I get why most would think otherwise. Miami is 0-14 at Gillette in games Brady starts with nine straight road losses in this series (the last win was over Matt Cassel) by an average of 18.4 points. The Pats haven’t lost three in a row since 2002, and have won their last eight at home. But Ryan Tannehill has been in command. I’m not saying that when you say Miami, you’re talking Super Bowl. But this is a playoff-contending team with all cylinders pumping catching Brady at just the right time for a change.

Prediction: Dolphins, 30-24

GAME OF THE WEEK

Ravens (2-1) at Steelers (1-1-1), 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)

Spread: Steelers by 31/2

Outlook: You can’t go wrong with Ravens-Steelers – a true rivalry in a league with too few – in prime time. Pittsburgh, incredibly, has won 13 prime-time games in a row, but Baltimore, loser of three straight in this series, might be due. Give up Pittsburgh in a venue call.

Prediction: Steelers, 31-27

OTHER GAMES

• At Falcons (1-2, -5) over Bengals (2-1), 28-24: Cincinnati is missing Joe Mixon and A.J. Green’s hobbled, but still like Bengals-with-points vs. Falcons defense minus its starting safeties. See a big game from Gio Bernard out of backfield.

• At Bears (2-1, -3) over Buccaneers (2-1), 23-13: Strong indication Ryan Fitzpatrick starts in Jameis Winston’s return from suspension. Uh oh. Khalil Mack and Chicago D will force turnovers and dominate at The Soldier.

• At Cowboys (1-2, -3) over Lions (1-2), 24-17: Rarely does a pick rest so heavily on one mismatch, but I really like Ezekiel Elliott busting out big vs. a run defense allowing 5.4 yards per carry.

• At Packers (1-1-1, -10) over Bills (1-2), 24-16: Buffalo had been on an 0-17 skid as a double-digit underdog before stunning the Vikings in Minnesota last week. No such repeat here.

• Eagles (2-1, -4) over At Titans (2-1), 21-20: Upset alert. Tennessee has become a strong home team (7-1 run) and should have Marcus Mariota back starting at QB. Champs hang on, but like Titans getting four.

• Texans (0-3, +11/2) over At Colts (1-2), 19-17: Upset! Colts have dominated Texans in Indy, winning 14 of past 16. But see Houston poised to get off the schneid behind Deshaun Watson outpitching Andrew Luck.

• At Jaguars (2-1, -71/2) over Jets (1-2), 20-10: Leonard Fournette (hamstring) is iffy, but still like Jaguars defense at home. If you hadn’t noticed, Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold has been pretty awful ever since that shiny debut.

• At Raiders (0-3, -3) over Browns (1-1-1), 24-20: Baker Mayfield and a fairly stout defense give the Browns a shot each week, but this still is a ripe opponent for Jon Gruden’s winless warriors to get right against.

• Seahawks (1-2, -3) over At Cardinals (0-3), 20-9: The Legion of Boom is dissolved, but Arizona’s putrid, toothless offense would make any defense look good. Cardinals are in our no-bet zone until they show any pulse with the ball.

• Saints (2-1, -31/2) over At Giants (1-2), 41-37: Punters, take the day off. There are dynamic, fantasy-darling playmakers all over the field, from Drew Brees to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley. Giants get sizable upset shot, but, bottom line, trust Brees to outpoint Eli.

• At Chargers (1-2, -101/2) over 49ers (1-2), 27-20: Jimmy Garoppolo lost for the season to a knee injury pops the Niners’ balloon. The idea of fill-in C.J. Beathard outscoring Philip Rivers here is right next to preposterous. Still, hunch is Niners getting all those points.

• Chiefs (3-0, -41/2) over At Broncos (2-1), 34-24: A good one for Monday night closes Week 4. Kansas City has won five straight in series but division rivalry and venue are leveling factors. Patrick Mahomes has been nearly unstoppable, and Denver’s pass defense isn’t great.

Last week: 10-6 overall, 8-8 vs. spread

Season: 30-16-2, 27-20-1

– By Greg Cote, Miami Herald

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