
He can see that Hillary is going to be the next president.
He can see the Republican Party train wreck strewn across the tracks this fall.
Ryan’s not playing coy or hard to get when he insists he isn’t running for president and doesn’t want to be drafted by the GOP.
He’s not running — not this year.
He’s seen too much bad stuff happen to Republicans already.
He’s seen the party’s leading nominee calling for the deportation of 11.5 illegal immigrants, which is impossible.
He’s seen a frontrunner saying he’d stop Muslims from coming into the U.S., which is impossible.
He’s seen a candidate who mistreats and insults women.
He’s seen a guy, a fake Republican from New York City, who thinks he’s got a right to get the nomination at the convention even if, according to the party’s rules, he doesn’t earn enough delegates to win it.
Now Ryan can see two scenarios, both of which are going to be disasters for the present and future of the Republican Party.
Trump wins. Hillary wins.
Trump loses. Hillary wins.
If Trump gets his 1,237 delegates and becomes the nominee without a contested convention, he and the GOP will get crushed by Hillary this November.
Congress could fall into the hands of the Democrats and Clinton Family Values will be restored to the White House they trashed for eight years.
If Trump loses in Cleveland because he didn’t win enough delegates, or because the GOP establishment played by the rules and the author of “The Art of the Deal” didn’t know how to, he and his followers will work overtime to sabotage the Republican Party’s chances.
Either way, Trump will make sure Hillary wins in November, and both the GOP and the country will lose.
The Party of Lincoln and Reagan, whether it nominates Trump or Cruz or someone else, is headed for disaster this fall. It’s going to get almost no votes from women, Latinos or blacks.
Ryan can already see — and hear and feel — the Great Republican Train Wreck of 2016 coming around the bend.
He is no dummy. He has no intention of becoming the engineer of his party’s inevitable self-derailment.
Four years from now, after Hillary is done with us, Ryan wants to become the superhero who puts the GOP train back on its tracks, resets its guidance system to a conservative destination and steers Republicans back into power.
Maybe he’ll do that while serving as Speaker of the House — if he still has that position after November.
Maybe he’ll go home to Wisconsin and try to fix Washington from the outside, not the inside.
Whatever he does, he’s seen how this election is going to end and he’s already started running for 2020.
———
Michael Reagan is the son of President Ronald Reagan, a political consultant and author.
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