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Republicans celebrated after national Democrats saw their preferred candidate fail to emerge from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District primary last week.

And even certain Democrats seem skeptical of State Auditor Matt Dunlap’s chances to hold onto the seat that retiring moderate Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, has held since 2019.

Axios quoted an unnamed “senior House Democrat” in a Monday article saying the 2nd District seat that both parties have viewed as key is “probably lost.” The latest Cook Political Report rating for the 2nd District is “likely Republican.”

But Dunlap — whom President Donald Trump predicted would win the Democratic primary and whom a shadowy group linked to Republicans spent money to boost — is confident after winning the ranked-choice voting runoff over state Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, the candidate endorsed by the national House Democratic campaign arm. Staring down a matchup with former Gov. Paul LePage, Dunlap will continue to see the national party spend big in hopes of holding the vast, rural district.

His team and supporters believe national Democrats and pundits are missing the reality on the ground in Maine. Dunlap, 61, is a well-respected and personable figure in Maine political circles who has long-running friendships with people from both parties. And although the 2nd District backed Trump in three elections, LePage only won it by a few points over Gov. Janet Mills when she trounced LePage by double digits statewide in the 2022 gubernatorial race.

A University of New Hampshire poll in February on hypothetical matchups had LePage only up 1 percentage point over Dunlap.

All of this points to a more intriguing general election showdown between Dunlap and the 77-year-old LePage than the district’s conservative tendency might indicate. But it remains to be seen whether national Democrats will throw all of their resources behind Dunlap after chastising him for launching a bid in October to oust Golden in this year’s primary. (Golden announced in November that he would not seek reelection, citing increasing political incivility and threats against his family.)

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Riya Vashi did not mention Dunlap in a statement after the runoff, saying only that the 2nd District “remains squarely in play.”

Vashi instead focused on LePage, the Lewiston native and former Waterville mayor whose controversial rhetoric and Trumpian style garnered plenty of attention in and outside of the state when he led Maine from 2011 to 2019.

“From vetoing Medicaid expansion half a dozen times and attacking Social Security to millions in tax breaks for the wealthy paid for by hiking property taxes on working families, extremist Paul LePage embodies everything Mainers are fed up with,” Vashi said.

But Dunlap’s campaign downplayed the idea that he has to mend ties with national bigwigs.

“Since winning the primary, Matt’s been getting calls of support and congratulations from national Democrats including DCCC leadership,” Dunlap campaign spokesperson Harry Burke said. “They’re all saying the same thing: We need to keep this seat blue, and they’re ready to help us defeat Paul LePage in November.”

House Majority PAC, which is the chief super PAC supporting Democrats in that chamber, is also sticking by the plan it had announced in April to pour more than $8 million into the 2nd District race this fall, spokesperson CJ Warnke confirmed Monday.

Republicans, in the meantime, sounded gleeful that national Democrats encountered another example of voters rejecting the candidate preferred by D.C. leaders in a high-profile primary.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the chief super PAC for House Republicans, has already set aside more than $5 million in 2nd District ads. The group’s president, Chris Winkelman, focused on Dunlap’s endorsement of U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner in one of Maine’s other key races this fall, using a statement on Dunlap’s primary win to call Platner a “Nazi-lover and woman abuser.”

LePage faced no primary challenge, but still received praise from Trump as a “proven America First Fighter” in a Truth Social post ahead of the June 9 election. Trump also ended up correctly predicting Dunlap’s primary win by writing LePage “will most likely be running against a Radical Left Democrat named Matt Dunlap.”

LePage and his campaign strategist, Brent Littlefield, did not comment on the various dynamics of the race, including whether Republicans preferred Dunlap as the Democratic nominee over Baldacci or the other candidates.

“Paul LePage is focused on lowering costs for Mainers, protecting jobs and greeting the economy,” Littlefield said Monday. “That’s the focus.”

Baldacci held the initial lead in the June 9 election by receiving nearly 32% of first-choice votes to roughly 29% for Dunlap and former Capitol Hill staffer Jordan Wood, while social worker Paige Loud was eliminated after receiving about 10% of the vote.

After no candidate received a majority in the first round, Dunlap picked up enough second-choice support from Loud and Wood voters to move past Baldacci in a series of ranked-choice voting runoffs, ultimately receiving about 52.5% of votes to 47.5% for Baldacci.

Dunlap had received an odd surge of support from a Republican-aligned group ahead of the election. In May, Real Change PAC, an outside group that did not have to immediately disclose its funders, began putting several hundred thousand dollars down to support Dunlap over Baldacci. Political observers noted the effort came off as a Republican attempt to meddle in the primary, a campaign tactic both parties have used to gain what they believe are favorable general election matchups.

The conservative Daily Caller reported Friday that Real Change PAC is indeed linked to the pro-Republican Conservative Americans PAC, which is in turn funded by American Prosperity Alliance, a group not legally required to disclose its donors.

Conservative Americans PAC was reportedly attempting to influence Democratic primaries in Maine, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Texas and New Jersey.

Conservative Americans PAC spokesperson Samantha Bullock told the Portland Press Herald on Monday that Trump has previously carried the 2nd District handily, and that “Democrats now have to contend with a far-left radical progressive going into the general election, which they clearly didn’t want either.”