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Democrat Hannah Pingree is the heavy favorite in the Maine governor’s race, a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found — the first public survey to be conducted since the June primaries. 

Pingree, a former speaker of the Maine House of Representatives and an official in Gov. Janet Mills’ administration, has the support of 50% of likely voters, according to the poll. Republican Bobby Charles received 36% support, followed by independent Rick Bennett, who received 8%. 

The poll, which surveyed 608 likely voters between June 19-26, gives a preview of how the race to November could go and the impact that Bennett’s third-party candidacy will have. It had a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. 

A former Republican who unenrolled from the party when he got in the race a year ago, Bennett has been seen as most likely to draw moderate Republican voters from Charles, a MAGA-style candidate.

According to the polling, most of Bennett’s support comes from voters who identify as independents. Among those who identified as Democrats, 3% said they were likely to vote for Bennett, compared to 6% of Republicans and 12% of voters who identified as independents.

Pingree performed the best with independent voters. She pulled 47% of those who identify as independents, while Charles got 31%. Nine percent said they were not sure whom they would support for governor or didn’t answer the question. 

When voters were asked to pick between just Pingree and Charles, or volunteer a different candidate they planned to support, Pingree’s lead over Charles increased, suggesting that Bennett is pulling slightly more from Pingree’s supporters than Charles’.

Fifty-five percent of respondents picked Pingree over Charles in the one-on-one matchup, with Charles drawing 40% support. Four percent said they didn’t know who they would vote for or didn’t answer the question, while less than 1% volunteered a different name.

Dennis Reeves, a retired pastor from Sanford and an independent voter who participated in the poll, said he is likely to support Pingree “not because I necessarily agree with her on many things, but because I won’t support anyone who supports Trump.” 

Pingree has made pushing back on President Donald Trump a key issue in her campaign, while Charles has sought to align himself with the president. Bennett voted for Trump in 2016, but has not supported him more recently. He hasn’t made the president a big talking point on the campaign trail. 

Reeves, a former Republican who said he changed his registration after Trump was nominated for the presidency in 2016, said he didn’t know much about Bennett. He noted that he doesn’t agree with Pingree’s support for allowing transgender athletes to compete in girls’ sports — an issue that conservatives are trying to bring to a statewide referendum in November.

Bennett, a state senator from Oxford, voted last year against bills aimed at preventing transgender athletes from competing in girls’ sports. Charles has expressed support for the referendum seeking to ban trans athletes from participating on teams that don’t match their gender at birth. 

“Obviously I’m going to have to vote for somebody I don’t totally agree with,” said Reeves, 78. “I’m going to make my decision based on character and their willingness to follow the law and follow the Constitution.”

Kirsten McQuillan, a real estate broker from Sidney and a registered Democrat, is backing Pingree — though she said she has also voted for Republicans in the past, including U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in 2020. She said she looks for “the right person and the person who has a good moral compass” in elections. 

In the governor’s race, she wants someone who will address key issues such as affordable housing and who will take a humanitarian approach to the job. 

“I like her presence,” McQuillan, 50, said of Pingree. “She has a good commanding presence and is trustworthy. In this crazy political environment, we need someone who has their head on straight and has commonsense values.” 

In Aroostook County, Charles supporter Daniel Deveau said high energy costs are a key issue for him, and he feels the Republican candidate will take the right approach to bring them down. Charles’ energy plans include reforming Maine’s Public Utilities Commission and negotiating completion of key natural gas pipelines. 

Deveau, a retiree from Cyr Plantation, is optimistic about Charles’ chances. He thinks the candidate’s message will resonate particularly in rural Maine, but said it could be a tough race. 

“Now you have an independent in there, so who knows what’s going to happen,” he said. 

Independents make up about one-third of Maine voters, and the state has a history of supporting them for key offices. One of four members of Maine’s congressional delegation, U.S. Sen. Angus King, is an independent. King also served as an independent governor from 1995 to 2003.  

All of Maine’s recent gubernatorial elections dating to 2010 have featured independent candidates, though how much support they’ve received has varied widely. In the last election for governor, in November 2022, retired doctor and political outsider Sam Hunkler received about 2% of the vote in a race featuring incumbent Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage. 

In 2010, independent Eliot Cutler, a lawyer and lobbyist, finished second to LePage in a five-way race in which he received close to 36% of the vote. LePage won with 38%. 

The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of Maine voters was funded with support from the Maine Trust for Local News.