
In the midst of a crisis, it’s easy to focus on a short-term security threat and forget long-term strategy. Thus, it’s worth remembering that political tensions in Yemen, not a phone call from Zawahiri, are behind AQAP’s resurgence. Drone strikes are a necessary tool in an emergency, but over the long term, the key to American security will be a strong, stable government in Yemen. The Obama administration should be mindful of the need to bolster that government, not undermine it.
For most of the last decade, AQAP was a tiny guerrilla force hiding in the mountains, incapable of posing an existential threat to Yemen’s government.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who ruled for decades with an iron fist, worried more about Shiite rebels in the north and ragtag secessionists in the south, where many feel like treated like second-class citizens. By 2006, Saleh had brought AQAP under control enough that the U.S. military began to scale back its assistance. But in recent years, the group has experienced a resurgence. Some say Saleh engineered it, in order to justify continued U.S. military aid. Others say neighboring Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on terrorists drove them into Yemen.
Whatever the case, the group’s big break came in 2011, after Arab Spring protesters rallied for Saleh’s departure. Saleh pulled his troops back to the capital to prioritize his own personal protection. The departing soldiers left a vacuum. AQAP, which once focused on attacks on the West, developed a new goal: creating an Islamic state inside Yemen. Last year, AQAP took over an entire province.
Yemen’s military has since retaken that province, but turmoil in the government has left the military divided and weak. Saleh eventually agreed to step down in a negotiated diplomatic deal that has so far helped Yemen avoid a protracted civil war.
His successor, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, is doing an admirable job trying to address the country’s myriad problems. But the challenge of reforming Yemen’s security forces, a bastion of patronage for the former regime, remains formidable. Saleh’s son commanded the Republican Guard. His half brother headed the Air Force. His nephew was chief of staff to the central security forces. Fixing Yemen’s military in the heat of this battle with AQAP is like repairing an airplane in midflight.
Hadi needs time and space for his delicate project to succeed. The United States should support him in ways that endear him to his public, not in ways that inflame passions against him, as a long campaign of drone strikes inevitably would. The U.S. military response to AQAP should be forceful enough to address the current threat, but restrained enough to avoid endangering a fragile ally at this critical moment.
— The Boston Globe
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