I write about Ukraine as a student of history. Like other Americans, I have never personally known what it is like for my country to be invaded. Nonetheless, I empathize with Ukrainians through the power of imagination, aided by the facts so far as we know them.

The area we call Ukraine has a long history of subjugation under foreign rule. Invaders in the last 400 years include Austria-Hungary, Russia, Germany, Poland and the Ottoman Empire. This has been true for much of Eastern Europe, so Ukraine is not alone in its long history of difficulties. Perhaps this is why the Ukrainian national anthem is so lovely. It speaks only of being left alone to govern itself, not to promote the ideal of national glory for its own sake.

Ukrainians in the past have fought each other as well as foreign invaders. Today they are torn again by at least three groups of internal antagonists. One includes those who aspire to a modern democracy allied with Western Europe. The second includes the neo-fascists that may have played a large role in the toppling of the pro-Russian government of Yanukovych in February. The third is all those who feel their allegiance is to Moscow. The country is so divided that it cannot form a strong government nor properly defend itself.

My guess is that Ukraine will have difficulty maintaining its independence for long. I would regard most of the country east of the Dnieper River as already lost. Russia ruled this part of the country during Czarist times and Putin is regaining control over it right now, incrementally. Putin’s game plan includes inciting further fear and unrest, leading to street fights backed by Russian weapons and special forces as needed. Outright civil war may be coming.

Putin will be able to take advantage of disorder in whatever form it takes. It will give him martyrs to inspire his followers and a strong reason to crack down violently on dissenters back at home. Already, dissent in Russia is dangerous and it can only become more so as time goes on.

The western part of Ukraine might succeed in maintaining its independence under certain conditions. Two requirements that I think are necessary would be neutralizing the neo-fascists and stopping the flow of Russian weapons and special forces to Putin’s supporters. A defensible border is a must, perhaps the Dnieper River. Dealing with the neo-fascists in the western part of the country will be difficult given the divisions within Ukrainian society. In the areas of Ukraine under Russian control, we can be sure that Putin will eventually have the neo-fascists wiped out. The Second Chechen War taught Putin how this can be done effectively.

The pro-western forces in Ukraine have weak allies, unlike those who look to Russia for help. I feel badly for the Ukrainians who believe in personal liberty like myself. Ukrainians looking for a better future have left their homeland in the past because of anarchy and oppression, and it looks like many will have to leave again.

If you want to know how an ordinary Russian feels about Putin’s expansion into Ukraine, I recommend listening to the Russian national anthem. Putin kept the excellent music from the old Soviet song, but put it to new words. It is very inspiring. I like hearing it sung by a Russian chorus on a video with English subtitles. Just remember that words like “freedom,” “glory” and “fraternity” might mean something different to a Russian than to you.

GARY FOGG is a resident of Brunswick.