A southerly wind brought a sea breeze to the coast late this afternoon and helped Portland, Brunswick and Rockland have temperatures in the more comfortable 70s. The heat and humidity were both quite high inland and it’s going to be a rather uncomfortable night for sleeping. Of course the start of July is also the July 4th weekend and many of you look forward to this holiday all year.

This year we have tropical storm Arthur moving up the coastline the next few days and this is certainly going to be a notable weather element, but likely having little or no impact to Maine. While this is the case, some of you might be traveling to other parts of New England so I want to give you a rundown of the weather through the weekend as it stands now. I am confident in another hot and humid day tomorrow and the weather becoming increasingly more unsettled Thursday into parts of Friday. Here are some other questions you might have and my answers right now. This is of course subject to change.

Will Arthur hit New England?
It is highly unlikely Arthur is going to directly hit anywhere in New England. The most likely scenario is the storm stays off our coastline and barely brushes the region. The outer banks of North Carolina could see a direct hit. The storm may intensify enough to cause some damage to that part of the Atlantic Coastline.

When are showers going to come back into the forecast?
There is a very small risk of a pop-up storm tomorrow over inland areas. However, the chance of showers and storms really doesn’t increase until Thursday afternoon and night. These showers are caused by a cold front, not Arthur.

Is Arthur bringing us rain and wind?
Although Arthur is going to pass safely out to sea, there is a cold front to our west which will help pull some of the moisture out of Arthur and move it northward into the area. The interaction of the cold front from the west and the storm are critical. If the upper winds and frontal boundary don’t capture any moisture we will just have a period of showers Thursday night.

When does the rain end?
The computer models take Arthur east of us on Friday night. Very often these storms move faster than the models predict. Right now it’s likely we see downpours Friday morning and even into the early afternoon. However, there is the chance we clear later in the afternoon or evening. Of course, I can’t predict what each city and town will do with the July 4th festivities. Morning parades will likely occur, if they are not cancelled, with tropical showers.

Could this speed up or slow down?
The timing of the rain for Thursday night and Friday is most certainly going to change a bit. I could see the rain shifting earlier or later by 4 or 5 hours. If everything moves later then the July 4th evening will be a washout, earlier and we have a nicer day on Friday.

In the winter storms sometimes go out to sea, could this go further east?
The computer models agree on keeping Arthur off the coast, but there is the chance the storm stays further east, this would lower the amount of rain. Since Arthur isn’t really a player in our forecast, the amount of rain shouldn’t be impacted if the storm passes further east.

I have a boat in the harbor should I remove it?
Right now, unless something changes drastically, the biggest issue from Arthur will be rain and some rough seas. Unless your marina can’t handle some waves, I would say leave everything in place.

When will you know better what is happening for the weekend?
Every 12 hours we get a major update of information. I’ll have an even better idea of the forecast later this afternoon and then again in the early morning hours of Wednesday.

What about the actual weekend?
July 5th and 6th look like great weather with low humidity and mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70s, a welcome break from this heat.