It’s a conversation that, right this minute, is taking place all over Maine.

I came across it the other day on Facebook, starting with a post by a woman who linked to a Politico story from last January that anointed Gov. Paul LePage “America’s Craziest Governor.”

“Don’t give this horrible man a second term,” the woman implored her Facebook friends. “Please remember also that a vote for Eliot Cutler is a vote for LePage. Release Maine from the grips of this monster and vote for Mike Michaud.”

To which one of her friends, a man who identified himself as a supporter of independent candidate Cutler, replied, “See what the debates offer as evidence of who is better qualified to lead rather than whip up the hysterics. … It’s too early for this nonsense. If you are passionate, help turn out the vote. Listen with an open mind to the editorials and all of the debates. What is there to be afraid of? This time I will vote my values not necessarily my party (Democrat). The candidates have to lay it out in the debates. Period.”

The message thread goes on to raise – and quickly discount – a theory that LePage and Cutler are now “in cahoots” against Democrat Michaud. There are also some bruised feelings about the “whipping up hysteria” line.

But then the Cutler supporter offers this tantalizing tidbit: “I do not support LePage in the least and do support Cutler. Today. And I can possibly be persuaded to vote otherwise. But the rhetoric and the whipped up frenzy isn’t going to do it. It’s old. I will vote my conscience on voting day.”

Somewhere in that statement lies the outcome of this gubernatorial election.

Will Cutler fans go to the polls on Nov. 4 determined to back their guy come hell or four more years of LePage?

Or will they do a last-minute gut check, take one final look at the most up-to-date poll results and, with a stroke of the felt-tip pen, bid Cutler farewell and cast a strategic vote for Michaud?

That brings us to Wednesday’s first televised debate among the three gubernatorial candidates on WCSH-TV. Also known as Cutler’s long-awaited chance to knock his two opponents silly and begin his rocket-propelled climb from the doldrums of a distant third to a first-place finish.

Which, with the election now just 18 days away, would be nothing short of miraculous.

Cutler’s strategy Wednesday? Swing hard and often, and leave voters so bedazzled by his sheer brain power that they’ll sever all ties with Michaud (and LePage, for that matter) and flock to Cutler like lost lambs in search of a shepherd.

Cutler’s mistake? He forgot that shepherds aren’t supposed to snarl.

Take the moment after LePage and Michaud traded barbs over energy policy: LePage had just gone after Michaud on expansion of Maine’s natural gas capacity, with Michaud countering, “I’m glad you brought that up Governor, because first of all, you have no energy policy.”

Cue Cutler.

“This is going to come as a surprise to everybody,” he said with his trademark twinge of sarcasm. “They’re both wrong.”

Observed Michaud, smiling widely, “That doesn’t surprise us.”

Replied Cutler, sounding as if he was admonishing a misguided teenager, “Well, you ought to listen to this, Mike. You’ll learn something.”

The only thing missing was a cymbal crash.

A short time later, during a candidates-ask-each-other-one-question segment, Cutler went after LePage for the state’s disastrous deal with Cate Street Capital to resurrect the now-bankrupt Great Northern Paper mill in East Millinocket.

After indulging himself with a 143-word lead-in, Cutler finally asked LePage, “Have you ever asked for an audit? Where is all the money? Where’s the money? Are you afraid to ask where it is? Do you not want to know? Are you afraid to take on corporate welfare as strongly as you’ve taken on other welfare? Where is the money?”

That wasn’t one question. That was seven. And kudos to moderator Pat Callaghan for finally stepping on Cutler with the admonition, “Let the governor answer the question.”

When the fur began to fly over health care, Cutler reminded LePage that Maine hospitals would welcome expanded Medicaid benefits to Mainers under the Affordable Care Act.

“The hospitals want you to take the money,” Cutler told the governor. “These are your friends. These are the people whose debts you paid by selling the (state’s) liquor business.”

Protested LePage, “No, we brought the liquor business back in.”

“Fine,” replied Cutler with a dismissive flick of his wrist. “You know exactly what you did.”

There were many such moments, all suggesting a man who, even in the crowded Augusta Civic Center, still considered himself the smartest guy in the room:

Cutler, who has never held elective office, telling Michaud: “Mike (long pause), I’m glad I don’t have your record.” (To which a gleeful LePage chimed in “Me too!” and clapped, 11 times, into his microphone.)

Cutler, this time to the crowd as he motioned toward his two opponents: “Do you really want four or eight more years of this? (Long pause.) Really?”

Cutler, moments later, in case the audience was having trouble keeping up with him: “We … don’t … need … more … of this.”

Cutler, in his opening remarks: “I understand management. I understand politics. I understand public service. And I understand the state of Maine.”

What Cutler apparently doesn’t understand – even as he hits the home stretch of his second gubernatorial campaign – is that running for statewide office is as much an exercise in humility as it is one of intellectual prowess. When voters close that curtain behind them, they tend to remember which candidate they liked the most – not the one who delivered the best lecture.

Cutler, fast running out of time, needs to quickly connect with those voters by the tens of thousands in the coming days. If he doesn’t – and so far there’s no sign of mass defection away from Michaud as there was from Democrat Libby Mitchell back in 2010 – the late surge on which he’s based his entire campaign simply will not happen.

In fact, if there is a last-minute, anyone-but-LePage migration in this election, it could well be the reverse of four years ago – away from Cutler and toward Michaud.

Thus it’s little wonder that guy on Facebook – and many like him – are in wait-and-see mode.

They support Eliot Cutler. Today.

But where will they be come Nov. 4?

Copy the Story Link