It’s dry again this early afternoon and it’s going to remain dry for much of the daylight hours. However, there is already an area of rain and thicker clouds back to the west of New England and this is steadily moving in our direction.

Although it was wet yesterday for the commutes, the volume of traffic was lower due to Veterans Day. This afternoon’s commute will likely turn out much slower than average depending on how you commute. The roads heading west to Gorham seem like some of the worst over the past several years.

Not Much Rain
The showers won’t be very heavy this evening, maybe amounting to about half of yesterday’s rain. I expect any rain to be over by mid-evening and then skies clear.

Behind this weather system it turns dry and initially chilly. The weekend will be good for raking leaves and all the other fall activities, but it will be cold early.

After the weekend another warming trend ensues with temperatures rising to above average levels. This pattern of alternating cool and warm should last up to and perhaps beyond Thanksgiving.

December likely starts overall warm, but how long this lasts will be open to interpretation. The American models continue to insist the warmer than average conditions continue through the winter, while the other global models have a much colder, but not as cold as last year, look to them. Even the Chinese model has the northeast quite warm next month, at least to start.

Many, Many Models
There are a lot of models available. Figuring out the winter isn’t simply noticing it’s warmer or colder than average. Remember, a warmer than average January can still be cold and a drier than average winter can still be very snowy. The Japanese model is below and also trends the northeast milder than average.

If areas in Canada are 10 or 15 degrees above average, temperatures can still be well below zero! That air then comes into New England and while not as cold as last February, still it won’t be warm.

El Nino continues to exist and will impact the weather for at least the first two-thirds of meteorological winter which runs December to February. El Nino will likely weaken during the winter. The graph below show the trend to return to average ocean temperatures grows as we head into the spring.

El Nino An Our Winter
Typical years with strong El Nino conditions result in a known shift in the jet stream. However, the subtle differences can create an enormous impact in New England and around the globe.

The position of the trough (L) off the west coast is critical in determining what happens downstream. See the map below for more details. Additionally, the interaction between the southern jet stream and the northern or polar jet stream will ultimately lead to a stormy winter or a more tranquil one.

While November isn’t even half over, I can say with confidence this is going to end up a very warm month. Even if the second half of the month is colder, it will be very difficult to overturn the warm anomaly we are seeing.

This is a huge turnaround from last year when November ran much colder than average and even produced a white Thanksgiving. The winter of 2015-2016 isn’t officially underway, but most indications continue to point to a winter with fewer cold outbreaks and less snow by far than the previous one.