The victory of Donald Trump in the election of 2016 should be seen in its proper historical context. It does not appear to be a vote for political right principles, a candidate or even a party, but mainly a revolt by ordinary Americans against a government that no longer represents them.
As the fascinating study by Gilen and Page at Princeton has shown, the policy preferences of ordinary Americans today has almost no influence on the decisions made by Congress and the President of the United States.
It is true that party discipline, gerrymandering and wedge issues helped the Republican Party in this election as it has in others, but that only explains why Republicans voted for a Republican nominee. It doesn’t explain the additional ten or fifteen percent of the electorate that sided with the Republican Party this time instead of someone else.
Perhaps the main reason that many independents voted for Trump this time instead of Hillary is that the Democrats are too conservative. For years, the Democratic Party has offered no real vision for reform that would benefit ordinary people. If the election was a disaster for Democrats, it is a disaster that has been in the making for over twenty-five years as the Democratic Party has moved steadily to the political right under the leadership of Bill and Hillary Clinton and others like them.
Bill Clinton learned how to increase his personal power within the Democratic Party as Governor of Arkansas. By bashing teacher unions and courting donations from business and conservatives he gained both money and prestige even within his own party. The new strategy was a winning one, and at its heart was the idea of gaining personal fame and wealth by crushing the political left.
As President, Bill Clinton perfected his strategy of implementing political right ideals in the name of the Democratic Party. These included welfare reform, deregulating the financial industry and seeking free trade agreements that benefit the rich in America and elsewhere but contribute to the loss of employment here in the United States. As manufacturing employment has declined over the past two and a half decades, so have labor unions and the political clout they once wielded.
President Obama has pursued the same strategy as the Clintons and he shares their conservative bias, but it has not helped him regain control of Congress. In fact, the influence of the Democratic Party under his leadership has continued to wane in the United States, just as it has throughout Hillary Clinton’s weak and ineffectual campaign for the presidency.
The people who voted for Donald Trump may celebrate for the time being, but it is unlikely that the new President or the Republican controlled Congress will do anything to improve their lives. Instead, it is more likely that the leaders of the Republican Party will use Donald Trump’s election to push their own personal agenda. If so, their resistance to positive change could make the political environment in America increasingly unstable.
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