Patriots (10-3) at Steelers (11-2), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Outlook: It’s a rare Game of the Week/Upset of the Week double play. The first part came easier. This game likely will determine the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It’s Tom Terrific vs. Big Ben. And both have added threats with the return of Rob Gronkowski and Juju Smith-Schuster. The upset part? Now that was a tougher sell. The Patriots are 10-3 vs. Pittsburgh under Bill Belichick, including four straight, and 3-0 in the postseason. And it’s always hard to imagine New England (made to look so shockingly ordinary by the Dolphins on Monday night) losing two straight. I see these two powers as close to even, so the pick tips on a strong home-field advantage for the underdogs.

Spread: Patriots -3.

Prediction: Steelers, 34-31


At Bills (7-6, -31/2) over Dolphins (6-7), 20-17: I cannot bring myself to count on the inconsistent and therefore unreliable Dolphins to replicate the extraordinary performance they mustered in beating the Patriots on Monday night in Miami, and Buffalo has been solid at home (5-2).

 Ravens (7-6, -71/2) over At Browns (0-13), 23-13: Miami needs to win out and get help to make the playoffs, and a loss here by the Ravens would be some of that help. But I just can’t bring myself to like DeShone Kizer vs. a strong defense.

 At Vikings (10-3, -11) over Bengals (5-8), 31-10: Cincinnati packed it in (and probably got Marv Lewis fired) with last week’s 33-7 collapse vs. the Bears. The Vikings can clinch the division title with a win, and will.

 At Saints (9-4, -16) over Jets (5-8), 27-16: The Saints are the biggest point-spread favorite in franchise history, partly because Josh McCown’s broken hand means the unproven Bryce Petty will play. But too many points to turn down … right?

 Eagles (11-2, -71/2) over At Giants (2-11), 24-20: Carson Wentz’s season-ending knee injury majorly dents the Eagles’ dreams but Nick Foles is an experienced, capable fill-in. Philadelphia will clinch a first-round bye with a win.

 At Washington (5-8, -41/2) over Cardinals (6-7), 23-21: Arizona is a trendy upset pick by the NFL literati this week, but I’ll trust Kirk Cousins at home to outscore the injury-wracked Cardinals.

 At Panthers (9-4, -21/2) over Packers (7-6), 27-20: Carolina is tied for the NFC South lead but all eyes will be on the Packers thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ (very likely) return from injury after seven games away. In the fairy tale, Rodgers returns heroically to lead a Green Bay triumph. In the real world, he’s more likely to be reinjured as a strong Panthers pass rush faces a Packers offensive line that has been beaten for 43 sacks.

 At Jaguars (9-4, -111/2) over Texans (4-9), 19-13: Jacksonville is poised to clinch its first playoff berth since 2007 and should, but even with third-string QB T.J. Yates facing an excellent Jaguars defense, I still have a hunch the Texans beat the spread in a low-scoring game.

 At Seahawks (8-5, -21/2) over Rams (9-4), 27-23: The betting line opened even before money started flowing to Seattle (with reason) in this great NFC West duel. I like Russell Wilson to outplay Jared Goff. I also like the Seahawks’ defense, especially at home, to limit Todd Gurley as it did in the teams’ first meeting.

 At 49ers (3-10, -2) over Titans (8-5), 23-20: The Titans are a tempting road underdog, but the Niners have won three of the past four, while in his past four games Marcus Mariota has eight interceptions. Jimmy Garoppolo has given the 49ers just the spark they hoped he would.

 Cowboys (7-6, -3) over At Raiders (6-7), 27-20: The Sunday nighter brings us two glamour franchises navigating unglamorous seasons. The winner here maintains a slim playoff hope; the loser must stop pretending. The Cowboys are 4-2 on the road. WR Amari Cooper is iffy for the Raiders, and the return from injury of LB Sean Lee is huge for Dallas.

 Falcons (8-5, -6) over At Buccaneers (4-9), 34-17: The Monday night stage finds the Falcons trying to stay on a playoff pace and Bucs trying to figure out what went wrong. Atlanta has won four of its past five, and its defense is a tough matchup for Jameis Winston’s turnover-prone offense.

Last week: 8-8 overall, 9-5-2 vs. spread

Season: 122-86, 87-109-12

– Greg Cote, Miami Herald