Halfway through the primary season, election results across the country have strengthened the Democrats’ hand in their quest for control of the House, even as shifts in the national mood raise the possibility that an anticipated electoral wave could flatten into a ripple.

After votes in 21 states, including California and seven others that held primaries Tuesday, Democrats have avoided potential pitfalls and secured general-election candidates in many Republican-held districts who have compelling biographical stories and political profiles that party leaders hope will have broad appeal in a nation that tends to vote for change in off-year contests.

New Mexico voters could elect the nation's first Native American woman to the U.S. House of Representatives in November. On Tuesday, Deb Haaland, a member of the Laguna Pueblo won a the Democratic primary for a seat that represents Albuquerque. "Tonight, we made history," Haaland said, to roars from her supporters. "Our win is a victory for working people, a victory for women and a victory for Indian Country." Associated Press/Russell Contreras

Many of the Democratic nominees are younger, more diverse and less tied to Washington than their GOP rivals.

Fresh evidence of the party’s primary success came Tuesday, when Democrats on California’s “top two” ballot succeeded in salvaging spots for several House seats that are considered toss-ups. Party leaders had feared divided Democrats would cede the seats to Republicans, but voters rallied sufficiently to push Democrats forward to November.

Republicans are counting on an improving economy and the local roots of their incumbents, buttressed by a financial advantage among outside fundraising groups.

ELECTORAL FEARS EASE

Their fears of an electoral catastrophe in November have been eased by declining concern among voters about the direction of the country and rising approval ratings for President Trump, who continues to dominate the daily news cycle by embracing polarizing issues such as immigration, criticism of federal law enforcement and the racially fraught topic of National Football League players kneeling during the national anthem.

But that appears to have been offset by the Democratic results so far. “They have enough seats in play and enough quality candidates in those seats to win the majority,” said Nathan Gonzales, who handicaps House races for Inside Elections. “Democrats have done a good job of turning enthusiasm into a large number of candidates, of turning enthusiasm into fundraising,” Gonzalez said. “But now they have to turn that enthusiasm into votes because that is what is going to matter in November.”

Voters have cast primary ballots in 32 of the 56 Republican-held House districts most vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Of the 28 races that have been called, Democratic women have won in half the districts, with women leading the Democratic ticket Wednesday afternoon in one of the four remaining seats still being counted in California. The party’s nominees in these crucial districts also include six military veterans and seven nominees who are black, Latino or Asian.

The winners include new political stars such as Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot running in Lexington, Kentucky, and Mikie Sherrill, a Navy pilot and former prosecutor running in northern New Jersey.

Democrats also have benefited from a rare unity between its wings. A predicted liberal Democratic rebellion has not materialized at the polls, in part because mainstream candidates have shifted to the left on policy. Liberal activists have defeated an establishment-backed candidate in only one congressional race this year, for a House district that includes much of Omaha.

At the same time, several key establishment recruits have easily sailed to victory, including moderate New Jersey Democrat Jeff Van Drew, a state representative who voted against legalizing same-sex marriage and raising the minimum wage. Like Van Drew, many of the recruits appear more palatable to the general-election audience in their districts.

“The pieces are set. So now it is how these things play out,” said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster at the Global Strategy Group, which has been working on congressional races. “The Democrats have done what they need to do to be in the position to have that wave happen if it comes.”

Democratic leaders continue to coach their candidates to steer clear of the fireworks surrounding Trump and the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential race, both to reinforce their focus on local concerns and to avoid riling Republican voters.

AVOIDING TRUMP TALK

“Our candidates aren’t talking about him a lot. Republicans are having to explain about the president,” said Rep. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., who leads the Democrats’ House midterm effort. “Our candidates and our colleagues are traveling around the country talking about the economy.”

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House and have benefited from a playing field that is largely located in the suburbs of major American cities, where polls show swing voters, especially educated white women, are more likely to reject Trump’s conduct in office. Strategists consider only five Democratic seats, including two in Minnesota, as vulnerable to a Republican takeover.

Republicans have been circulating white papers that suggest the political environment may not be as favorable as Democrats think. A document distributed by the Hohlt Group, a Republican lobbying firm, cites Republican statewide primary turnout in states such as Indiana, Ohio and Texas that was far higher than Democratic turnout, though the number of Democratic ballots cast in key House districts in those states rose more steeply than for Republicans, who did not have competitive primaries. The numbers are seen as a possible measure of Republican enthusiasm in the fall.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC focused on House races, has highlighted the growing number of Americans who say the country is going in the right direction. The right-direction level of around 39 percent in polling averages is considerably better than in recent wave-election midterm years, such as 2004, 2006 and 2010.

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