LOS ANGELES — Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
The UFC lost one of its greatest draws two years ago when Ronda Rousey returned from a year off following her stunning 2015 knockout loss to Holly Holm and was finished in less than a minute by new champion Amanda Nunes.
Now, the UFC is confronted with another champion returning from a long layoff as Conor McGregor takes on arguably the sport’s top pound-for-pound fighter, Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0) of Russia, in the main event of UFC 229 on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
“He’s a very popular fighter. People love him – rightly or wrongly – and they’ll tune in to watch him win or get knocked out,” former UFC middleweight champion and Fox UFC analyst Michael Bisping said of McGregor. “Either way, it results in pay-per-view sales, a lot of money, and ultimately he’s winning. “If he loses, where does he go from there? That’s the question.”
The strategy for McGregor (21-3) will be to land a power punch on Nurmagomedov, who is expected to seek takedowns.
It’s a compelling draw, one UFC President Dana White said he expects to break the 1.6-million-pay-per-view record. Still, a defeat could cause major headaches for the UFC.
While McGregor has plenty of possible opponents to summon afterward, all of them would specialize in taking the fight to the canvas like Nurmagomedov.
Among the options are a trilogy date with Nate Diaz, a move up in weight against welterweight champion Tyron Woodley, or former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson.
Defeat exposes fighters, diminishes their drawing power, and can transform the rapid-tongued brilliance into the ramblings of a man desperate to recapture what has vanished.
Bisping envisions two endings: an early McGregor knockout win, or an extended punishment by Nurmagomedov, who not only dodged that hand truck that McGregor tried to throw at him through a bus window in Brooklyn in April, but has listened without flinching as the Irishman battered his father, religious beliefs, political friends and relationship with Vladimir Putin.
“I don’t underestimate his striking game,” Nurmagomedov said. “He’s very good on timing, power. It’s a very interesting fight, stylistically. You have to improve yourself as champion because I’ve noticed a lot of champions … they change with (the acclaim of) a lot of (public) appearances and the money. These things can change your skills. You have to be focused.”
Bisping, for now, isn’t buying those projecting the precipitous downfall of McGregor.
“He’s always in the spotlight. He’s an egomaniac. And in a scenario like this, that helps you,” Bisping said. “He hasn’t been beaten in the octagon in more than two years. Getting back in there is going to feel like yesterday. Look at him. He walks around like he’s the boss. Ring rust is a mental thing, but if your mental game is strong, it won’t be an issue.”
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