UPSET OF THE WEEK
Bills (3-0) at Raiders (2-1), 4:25 p.m.
Spread: Bills by 3
Outlook: Buffalo has not started a season 4-0 since 2008, and I see Vegas keeping it that way. The Bills and Josh Allen are due for a back-to-earth performance, and I see Raiders RB Josh Jacobs and TE Darren Waller rebounding from subpar games last week.
Prediction: Raiders, 30-24
OTHER GAMES
Seahawks (3-0, -6) over At Dolphins (0-3): Russell Wilson arrives with 14 TD passes, a record through three games, and early MVP front-runner status. Wilson looks unstoppable, but Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick is looking at a Seattle pass defense allowing 430.7 yards per game. I like Miami getting six points, but, did I mention Russell Wilson?
• Colts (2-1, -2 1/2) over At Bears (3-0), 23-20: The 3-0 Bears benched starting QB Mitch Trubisky for Nick Foles. That’s a shaky 3-0. The Colts end a six-game road losing streak.
• At Bengals (0-2-1, -3) over Jaguars (1-2), 27-21: Joe Burrow, coming off a tie, should outpitch Gardner Minshew and bag his first pro win.
• At Cowboys (1-2, -5) over Browns (2-1), 28-24: Dallas is a miracle from being 0-3. Cleveland has a winning record for the first time since 2014. I’m taking Dallas here to get by at home, but the bet line seems too big.
• Saints (1-2, -4) over At Lions (1-2), 34-27: Top WR Michael Thomas is out for New Orleans and the Saints defense has allowed 71 points in the last two games. But! Watch Alvin Kamara go wild against the Lions’ lousy run defense.
• At Buccaneers (2-1, -7) over Chargers (1-2), 24-13: Tom Brady will be missing WR Chris Godwin, but Tampa is winning with defense, not Brady, and the Bucs will make it a rough day for rookie QB Justin Herbert.
• Ravens (2-1, -13) over At Washington (1-2), 37-10: Baltimore scarcely bothered to show up in that Monday night blowout home loss to Kansas City, but should bounce back here.
• Cardinals (2-1, -3) over At Panthers (1-2), 31-16: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins get the attention, but Arizona’s stout defense should handle a Carolina attack still missing do-everything Christian McCaffrey.
• At Texans (0-3, -5) over Vikings (0-3), 28-24: I talked myself out of my gut feeling and changed my mind on this pick. Kirk Cousins has been really bad, and Vikes’ D has hugely disappointed. But I still like the Vikes to cover.
• At Rams (-13) over Giants (0-3), 38-13: New York’s offense, sans Saquon Barkley, is stuck in a deep ditch. The Giants last faced the Rams in L.A. in 1994, and this one could get ugly.
• At 49ers (2-1, -7) over Eagles (0-2-1), 24-20: Having TE George Kittle back will be a huge lift for the 49ers. Carson Wentz and his injury-wracked offense have struggled, but the Eagles’ defense will test San Francisco’s ground game and keep it close.
• At Packers (3-0, -7) over Falcons (0-3), 34-28: The Falcons are 0-3 despite averaging 30 points a game. Coach Dan Quinn is nearing hot-seat territory, and Aaron Rodgers against this pass defense suggests a rout, but watch Matt Ryan keep this one inside the point spread.
• Steelers (3-0, -1) at Titans (3-0) – postponed: A matchup that had Game of the Week potential was postponed until later in the year by the Titans’ COVID outbreak. These teams have beaten opponents that are a combined 1-17, so both have proving to do.
TO BE DETERMINED
Patriots (2-1) at Chiefs (3-0)
Spread: N/A
Outlook: This would have been the Game of the Week, until it was postponed Saturday because of Cam Newton’s positive COVID-19 test. If the game is rescheduled for Monday or Tuesday, the Patriots will have to use either Brady Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, making it unlikely they’ll be able to score enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Prediction: N/A
Last week: 8-7-1, overall, 10-6 vs. spread
Season: 30-17-1; 25-22-1
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