Bills (11-3, -7) at Patriots (6-8), 8:15 p.m. Monday (CBS)
Spread: Bills by 7
Outlook: Plenty of intrigue here as the season’s final Monday night game wraps up Christmas week in the NFL. Once-lowly Buffalo reigns as the AFC East champ for first time since 1995. Once-mighty New England is out of playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The Pats have dominated this series for years. How about now? Star WR Stefon Diggs (foot) is iffy, but if he plays there will be no Stephon Gilmore to guard him. Still, count on Bill Belichick to find ways to limit Josh Allen and keep this competitive.
Prediction: Bills 23-20
GAME/UPSET OF THE WEEK
Colts (10-4) at Steelers (11-3), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Colts by 2
Outlook: You want more crazy in a crazy year? Pittsburgh is 11-3 … and a home ’dog. Three straight losses and a hot, quality opponent will do that. The Steelers clinch the division title with a win or a Browns loss. The Colts clinch a berth with a win, if the Ravens or Dolphins lose. Pitt needs and should get a big bounceback game from Ben Roethlisberger (a pick in five straight games). Also, the Steelers have beaten the Colts six straight times – and 15 of the past 16 at home in the series. Mostly, I just cannot see a team this good, at home, losing a fourth game in a row.
Prediction: Steelers 27-21.
OTHER GAMES
• @Chiefs (13-1, -101/2) over Falcons (4-10), 34-24: The Chiefs clinch a first-round bye with a win (or a Steelers or Bills lose). Book it. But KC is on a 0-5-1 skid against the spread and this feels like another, with Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley well-armed to hang around in a shootout.
• Browns (10-4, -10) over @Jets (1-13), 28-13: The Jets got the upset of the season, shocking the Rams last week. The Jets are showing life , but the Browns can clinch their first playoff berth since 2002 with a win if Ravens, Dolphins or Colts lose.
• Bears (7-7, -71/2) over @Jaguars (1-13), 27-17: The Jaguars were just handed the best Christmas gift ever with the Jets winning to relinquish the top draft pick in Trevor Lawrence. They wouldn’t dare blow it by winning here. (Would they!?)
• @Ravens (9-5, -101/2) over Giants (5-9), 24-16: Baltimore’s offense has come alive in a three-game win streak and this is a must-have result with Miami owning a tiebreaker over Ravens for final AFC playoff spot.
• @Texans (4-10, -8) over Bengals (3-10-1), 28-21: One of only two Week 16 games (Broncos-Chargers) with zero bearing on the playoff picture. Cincy should fall back down to earth after a shocking Monday win over Pittsburgh, but will stay close.
• @Washington (6-8, -21/2) over Panthers (4-10), 23-13: Hard to believe but Washington clinches the NFC East crown with a win, and is hopeful QB Alex Smith and RB Antonio Gibson are back. That and strong defense will be enough.
• @Chargers (5-9, -31/2) over Broncos (5-9), 27-18: The Chargers, led by rookie Justin Herbert, is finishing stronger than Denver. Tempted by that extra half-point on the bet-line, but the Chargers have enough pop on offense to cover.
• @Cowboys (5-9, +2) over Eagles (4-9-1), 34-31: Jalen Hurts has played well in two starts for a team on a 1-5 skid. A healthy Andy Dalton and the expected return of Ezekiel Elliott are enough for the upset.
• @Seahawks (10-4, -11/2) over Rams (9-5), 24-20: The Rams will bounce back with a big effort after last week’s colossal embarrassment against the Jets. But Russell Wilson and Seattle have more offensive pop and are much better at home – including a 12-3 home run vs. rival Rams.
• @Packers (11-3, -31/2) over Titans (10-4), 38-31: The Titans are only the fifth team ever to have 30-plus points and 420-plus yards in five straight games, but the Pack is as good on the scoring end and better on D. The question: Which opponent will do better job in limiting Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Henry? Sticking with Pack at Lambeau on a 6-0 run in prime time.
Last week: 10-6 overall, 4-9-3 vs. spread.
Season: 142-81-1, 111-108-5
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