Buccaneers (14-5) vs. Chiefs (16-2) at Tampa, Fla., 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Chiefs by 3

Overview: The NFL somehow managed to survive this pandemic season with zero games canceled and only five postponed, and now, like a reward at the end, we get a Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl. We get the greatest champion in league history vs. the young, reigning king. So who wins? Right out front here, the safest play for me might be the over (56), because I do not see two pretty-good-but-fallible defenses stopping two offenses capable of being unstoppably great. The harder job is settling on who’ll win outright and against that stubborn and steady 3-point betting line favoring the Chiefs, a number that has nudged to 3 1/2 at some sportsbooks, but not many. Not only would a Tampa Bay win not surprise me, I see it as about dead-even likely. I was going back and forth on this pick like eyes at a tennis match.

The case for the Bucs: Well, Mr. Brady, no duh, in his 10th Super Bowl and after his seventh ring. The untouchable G.O.A.T. Tampa is the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium, and is better on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Bucs expect to have top LB Lavonte David back, and have a chance to pressure Mahomes without blitzing thanks to Kansas City missing both its top tackles, including left-side guardian Eric Fisher. And history makes the odds against the Chiefs winning a second straight crown. Back-to-back hasn’t happened since 2003-04 when the Patriots – and Brady – did it.

The case for the Chiefs: Start with Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Chiefs beat the Bucs in late November. It was by only 27-24, but KC dominated time of possession and Mahomes pitched for 462 yards – 269 to Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs’ speed led by Hill is a big edge over the Bucs’ secondary. KC is better in the kicking game and special teams. And two weeks off to heal his injured toe should give Mahomes the added mobility to help offset the absence of his two best tackles. And with the very notable exception of Brady, the Bucs surrounding him are no match for the Chiefs’ overall postseason experience.

And the winner is … The only result that would surprise is a low-scoring defensive scrum. The Chiefs are 15-4-1 against the spread in their past 20 games when favored by 3 or less, and proved in the second half of the season they know how to win close games. Truth be known, my gut feeling was to pick Tampa to win, but the reasons for KC kept arguing otherwise. The NFL is due for another back-to-back champion. Brady has had his day, his decades. It’s Mahomes’ time now time now.

Prediction: Chiefs, 34-27

Playoffs: 7-5 overall; 5-7 vs. spread

Final 2020: 166-89-1, 130-120-6 vs. spread, .520