No. 4 Rams (13-5) at No. 2 Buccaneers (14-4), 3 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: Buccaneers by 3

Outlook: Both teams are coming off impressive wild-card wins, and the Rams are nearly as good on the road as the Bucs are at home. The Rams are on a 7-1 run in the series, including a 34-24 September win in which Matthew Stafford tossed four TDs. The Buccaneers have won 11 of 12 home games, though, and Brady’s magic is historic. This pick makes me the most nervous of the four, but give Tampa Bay a slight edge both with the ball and without, plus the home field. Oh, and if Tom Brady has not earned your faith, then who?

Prediction: Buccaneers, 28-24

No. 3 Bills (12-6) at No. 2 Chiefs (13-5), 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Chiefs by 2


Outlook: Offensively, Josh Allen can hang with Patrick Mahomes. In fact, in the October meeting (a 38-20 Bills’ road win) Allen passed for 315 yards, ran for 59 and totaled four TDs. Part of the reason? Buffalo has a clear defensive edge over KC – especially against the pass. Both teams dominated in the wild-card round, but Buffalo’s perfect game against the Patriots put its upside on full display. All 12 of Buffalo’s wins were by 12-plus points, and the Chiefs are capable of the same dominance. That makes it a volatile pick because either team winning, or winning big, would not surprise. We’re feeling the onset of a Bills AFC takeover.

Prediction: Bills, 31-28

Last week: 4-2, overall; 3-3, vs. spread

Final regular season: 172-99-1, 140-130-2

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