PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Lions (1-3) at Patriots (1-3), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 3

Outlook: Pats QB Mac Jones (ankle) isn’t expected to return, backup Brian Hoyer was put on IR because of a concussion and rookie Bailey Zappe is on call for his maiden NFL start. We’ll rely on Bill Belichick, home field and defense for this call. Detroit’s dangerous offense has injuries and will be missing running back D’Andre Swift. And oh my, but Detroit’s defense stinks! Taking Packers to overtime last week shows New England has fight left.

Prediction: Patriots, 24-20

GAME OF THE WEEK

Bengals (2-2) at Ravens (2-2), 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)

Spread: Ravens by 3

Outlook: Hard to go wrong with Joe Burrow at Lamar Jackson on a Sunday night, although Baltimore has lost five straight home games, and Cincy is on an 0-9 skid on Sunday night. The Bengals have won the past two meetings and rolled up 41 points in each, and the Ravens’ defense has been beat up the past few games, so the onus is squarely on the home team’s D. I think it will rise and deliver.

Prediction: Ravens, 27-23

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Chargers (2-2) at Browns (2-2), 1 p.m. Sunday

Spread: Chargers by 21/2

Outlook: Justin Herbert vs. Jacoby Brissett by itself seems quite the mismatch, but much else has us leaning to the home team. Liking Cleveland’s defense a bit more, and that Nick Chubb-led ground game is the real deal. Plus, Keenan Allen (hamstring) is very iffy, so Herbert may once again be missing his favorite target.

Prediction: Browns, 26-24

OTHER GAMES

• Packers (3-1, -8) over Giants (3-1), 27-17, in London: London gets two tradition-rich, “name” clubs, plus Aaron Rodgers. New York’s QB state is precarious, with Daniel Jones playing on a tender ankle, and its best shot is a big dose of Saquon Barkley to play keep away from Rodgers.

• Dolphins (3-1, -3 1/2) over @Jets (2-2), 24-18: Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely because of a concussion, so Teddy Bridgewater steps in. Zach Wilson is back from injury but looked mighty shaky in his debut last week. Bottom line: The Dolphins are better all round, are on an 8-1 series run, and have added rest after playing last Thursday.

• @Bills (3-1, -14) over Steelers (1-3), 34-13: A huge point spread for the NFL, but justified. Rookie Kenny Pickett making his first pro start in is all you need to know. The Steelers are 0-7 without T.J. Watt and won’t have an answer for Josh Allen

• @Vikings (3-1, -7 1/2) over Bears (2-2), 24-16: The Vikings are off to their best start since 2016 and should keep it going with Bears QB Justin Fields struggling and the defense keeping them in games.

• @Saints (1-3, -5 1/2) over Seahawks (2-2), 24-23: Geno Smith is hot, but Seattle’s defense is on the edge of awful. The Saints are a surprisingly big favorite despite 11 giveaways and a minus-7 net on turnovers. A shaky nod to the Saints, but the bet line seems fatter than me leaving an all-you-can-eat buffet.

• @Buccaneers (2-2, -9) over Falcons (2-2), 31-17: Tampa Bay has lost two straight, albeit to Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, but Tom Brady will outscore Marcus Mariota.

• @Commanders (1-3, +1 1/2) over Titans (2-2), 23-20: Another difficult call, with two erratic teams and Tennessee facing a letdown after last week’s big division upset at Indy. But I’m saddling up the home dogs on a marginal-confidence hunch.

• @Jaguars (2-2, -7) over Texans (0-3-1), 21-17: Houston is the NFL’s last winless team, but not so putrid it can be taken lightly by a Jags squad with much proving still to do. The Jags O-line is awful, and the Texans rank sixth in sacks.

• 49ers (2-2, -6 1/2) over @Panthers (1-3), 19-16: San Francisco is on a short week and facing a letdown after that big division win over the Rams on Monday night. Hunching the Panthers stay inside the bet line in a points-shy game.

• @Rams (2-2, -5 1/2) over Cowboys, 27-23: Matthew Stafford’s offensive line is a holy mess (sacked 16 times already). Dallas is 3-0 under Cooper Rush. Having said that, Rush is due a stumble and the Rams will find some champion mojo at home.

• Eagles (4-0, -5 1/2) @Cardinals (2-2), 30-20: Might an upset happen? Yes. Kyler Murray is capable of going off. But would I bet on that upset? No. Philly has great balance, with and without the ball, and tops the NFL with a plus-8 turnover differential.

• @Chiefs (3-1, -7) over Raiders (1-3), 34-23: Kansas City has won three in a row over the Raiders by a combined 124-54, and 13 of the past 15. Chiefs just beat the Bucs and have Buffalo next, so this could be a look-ahead/sandwich game situation. The Raiders will need that and more.

Week 4: 10-6 overall, 9-6-1 vs. spread

Season: 34-29-1, 30-33-1

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