PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Colts (3-4-1) at Patriots (4-4), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Patriots by 5
Outlook: Indy was dumb to bench Matt Ryan in favor of the untested Sam Ehlinger, and we will see why here as Bill Belichick feasts on green young QBs. When running back Jonathan Taylor isn’t a dominant horse, the Colts don’t have much on the attack. The Pats are on an 8-1 roll in series, and Indy has lost six straight trips to Foxborough. With two turnover-prone teams, mistakes figure as the difference. Bet line feels fat for a points-shy matchup.
Prediction: Patriots, 20-16
GAME OF THE WEEK
Rams (3-4) at Buccaneers (3-5), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Buccaneers by 3
Outlook: How is 3-4 at 3-5 the Game of the Week? It’s two desperate, humbled giants – the past two Super Bowl champions – scrambling to stay in the playoff hunt. It’s Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford languishing at 14th and 20th in passer ratings. Shocking struggles and desperation make this a must-see game. Give me the home team, rested after playing last Thursday. Give me Brady finding a way.
Prediction: Buccaneers, 21-17
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Vikings (6-1) at Commanders (4-4) 1 p.m. (FOX)
Spread: Vikings by 3
Outlook: The Commanders have won three in a row, Taylor Heinicke is looking like a quarterback upgrade over injured Carson Wentz, and devil owner Dan Snyder might finally be selling the team. Minnesota’s five straight wins all have been by a one-score margin, with four at home and four against teams with a losing record. I’m just not quite sold on the Vikings, who are flattered by their record and due for a loss, as QB Kirk Cousins falls against his former team.
Prediction: Commanders, 23-20
OTHER GAMES
Dolphins (5-3, -4) over @Bears (3-5), 27-20: The Dolphins are 5-0 this season when Tua Tagovailoa plays the whole game and on a 12-2 run with him starting. Tua leads the NFL in passer rating, and Tyreek Hill is on pace to top 2,000 yards receiving, which would be a first in league history.
Chargers (4-3, -3) over @Falcons (4-4), 27-20: Atlanta has lost seven of nine as a home dog. Off a bye week, the Chargers and Justin Herbert should find friendly skies against Atlanta’s 32nd-ranked pass defense.
@Bengals (4-4, -7) over Panthers (2-6), 24-16: Cincy’s vulnerability (and Joe Burrow’s) is a bad O-line, and Ja’Marr Chase out hurts, but Burrow has enough weapons to handle Carolina.
Packers (3-5, -3 1/2) over @Lions (1-6), 30-23: Green Bay is on a 5-1 series roll, and Detroit has lost 19 of 24 at home. And even when Green Bay is struggling … the Lions are worse.
Bills (6-1, -11 1/2) over @Jets (5-3), 31-14: Buffalo’s best start since 1993 is no fluke. The Jets’ offense badly misses injured Breece Hall, and it will take fireworks beyond Zach Wilson’s reach to hang with Josh Allen and keep this close.
@Jaguars (2-6, +2) over Raiders (2-5), 26-23: The Jags have lost five in a row since a 2-1 start. The Raiders’ shutout loss to the Saints was a fifth straight loss. The Jags’ defense is sneaky good, especially at home, and will extend the Raiders woes.
Seahawks (5-3, +2) over @Cardinals (3-5), 27-24: I get (sort of) why the Cardinals might be favored, but Seattle is bit better on both sides of the ball, and Arizona is 1-3 at home. If D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett play as expected, Geno Smith should it light up.
@Chiefs (5-2, -11) over Titans (5-2), 27-17: The Titans have won five in a row, have the same record as K.C., and Coach Mike Vrabel is 4-1 head-to-head with Andy Reid … but look at that point spread! Ryan Tannehill (ankle) may be hobbled if he plays. The Chiefs are home and off a bye and Reid is a surreal 20-3 after byes. Still, give me the Titans plus-11, though a rout would not shock.
Ravens (5-3, -2 1/2) over @Saints (3-5), 30-23: New Orleans shut out Las Vegas last week, but Lamar Jackson is a whole nuther’ challenge. I do not see Andy Dalton, beset by offensive injuries, outscoring Jackson.
Bye week: Broncos (3-5), Browns (3-5), Cowboys (6-2), 49ers (4-4), Giants (6-2) and Steelers (2-6)
Last week: 9-6 overall, 8-7 vs. spread
Season: 68-54-1, 60-62-1
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