PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Jets (6-3) at Patriots (5-4), 1 p.m., (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 3

Outlook: We will see if the Jets truly have turned a meaningful corner or if they’re still obedient dogs on Bill Belichick’s leash. Asked this just three weeks ago, and the Pats won, 22-17 – Belichick’s 13th straight win and 21st in the last 23 meetings. New York is 4-0 on road, but New England’s defense will be trouble in Zach Wilson’s pocket. The Jets will beat Belichick someday. Just not this day.

Prediction: Patriots, 20-16

GAME OF THE WEEK

Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Cowboys by 1

Outlook: Dallas lost at Green Bay last week, and Minny won at Buffalo in a pair of OT thrillers. Expect the Vikings to saddle up Dalvin Cook against the 29th-ranked Dallas run stoppers. I still like the Dallas defense better than Minnesota’s, and the offense should be full strength with the expected return of Ezekiel Elliott. I keep thinking the Vikings are not as good as their record and keep being proven wrong.

Prediction: Cowboys, 27-24

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Eagles by 6 1/2

Outlook: Philly finally lost, and now what are the odds the Eagles lose again? Well, pretty good, it says here. Indy was underperforming and has a winning-caliber defense. When Jonathan Taylor is running like he did last year and Matt Ryan avoids interceptions, the Colts are good. I like ’em against a team with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both iffy to play.

Prediction: Colts, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

@Falcons (4-6, -3) over Bears (3-7), 27-23: Two erratic and slumping teams that won’t sniff the playoffs make for one unreliable bet, but signs point to Atlanta at home. Justin Fields is the dual threat the Bears hoped for but also has taken an NFL-high 36 sacks.

@Bills (6-3, –1/2) over Browns (3-6), 24-13: The Browns can lean on running back Nick Chubb, but even with the game moved to Detroit and Josh Allen’s elbow not 100%, that Bills’ defensive front will make it a nightmare for Jacoby Brissett.

Rams (3-6, +3 1/2) over @Saints (3-7), 19-17: Rams QB Matthew Stafford returns from a concussion but won’t have Cooper Kupp (high ankle sprain). These are two slumping, disappointing teams, but even sans Kupp, saddle up the Rams defense to win this one.

@Giants (7-2, -3) over Lions (3-6), 24-17: The Giants as a small home favorite disrespects a 7-2 team. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones scrambling should dominate the Lions’ 31st-ranked run defense.

@Ravens (6-3, -13) over Panthers (3-7), 31-10: Baltimore hopes tight end Mark Andrews and running back Gus Edwards are back. The Ravens’ pass rush should make for a most uncomfortable return for QB Baker Mayfield.

Commanders (5-5, -3) over @Texans (1-7-1), 21-17: Washington is traveling on a short week and facing a letdown after its huge Monday upset of previously unbeaten Philly. And Houston is sure easy to overlook as the NFL’s only one-win team. The home-dog Texans would be a solid bet to cover.

Raiders (2-7, +2 1/2) over @Broncos (3-6), 24-16: I am tired of counting on Denver’s defense to work miracles and/or Russell Wilson to start looking like the QB he once was. Vegas is 0-5 on road, but that’s a trend ripe to end.

Bengals (5-4, -4) over @Steelers (3-6), 23-20: Joe Burrow is missing his best target in injured Ja’Marr Chase, while Pittsburgh has gotten a defensive lift from the return of T.J. Watt. Pitt is on a 12-3 run in the series. I like the Bengals off a bye to eke it out, but the Steelers to cover.

Chiefs (7-2, -6) over @Chargers (5-4), 31-27: The gap favoring KC’s offense (and Patrick Mahomes over Justin Herbert) narrows because the Chargers might have both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup, while the Chiefs have three iffy receivers. Mahomes is on a 5-0 run in Sunday prime time, but take the points.

49ers (5-4, -8) over @Cardinals (4-6), 24-20: Arizona QBs Kyler Murray (hamstring) are Colt McCoy (knee) are both ailing. I’ll still take the Cards at plus-eight, though I’ll feel better if Murray plays.

Byes: Dolphins (7-3), Buccaneers (5-5), Jaguars (3-7), Seahawks (6-4)

Last week: 6-8 overall, 9-5 vs. spread

Season: 84-65-1, 74-72-4

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