GAME OF THE WEEK

Browns (4-7) at Texans (1-9-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Browns by 7

Outlook: Week 13 features no less than six quality matchups that could be Game of the Week – including Dolphins-49ers, Chiefs-Bengals and Titans-Eagles. And we’re picking a game between two teams that are a combined 5-16-1. Why? Watchability, curiosity, drama and controversy. And Deshaun Watson’s long-awaited return for his first game in 700 days. Expect a pick or two. Might even fancy an upset, which I would not rule out if the opponent weren’t so horrid. But it won’t come down the QB, not when you have the Browns’ high-powered ground game vs. a Texans run defense ranked 32nd.

Prediction: Browns, 27-16

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Commanders (7-5) at Giants (7-4), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: Commanders by 2 1/2

Outlook: Washington enters this game in better form, on a 6-1 run and 5-1 under Taylor Heinicke, while the Giants have dropped three of four. These are two flawed but playoff-chasing teams. So why the upset? The Giants are rested after playing last Thursday, are at home, and have the law of averages suggesting Washington is due a stumble.

Prediction: Giants, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

@Falcons (5-7 +1) over Steelers (4-7), 19-17: Two strong ground games will hide two subpar QBs in a clock-grinding affair. Pittsburgh has lost four of six on the road, while the Falcons are on a 4-1 run in their dome and the Steelers are coming off a short week.

Packers (4-8, -4 1/2) over @Bears (3-9), 23-20: Aaron Rodgers (ribs) and Justin Fields (shoulder) both are questionable. The Packers are on an 11-1 run at Soldier Field and Rodgers loves to remind Bears fans he “owns” them, except he owns nobody this year. The Packers’ run D better hope Fields’ injury limits his potent scrambling.

@Lions (4-7, Even) over Jaguars (4-7), 34-30: Both team have seen an upturn, and the extra rest is an edge for the Lions along with the Jags’ 1-19 skid on the road. Detroit’s defense, has improved, too, but expect a shootout.

@Vikings (9-2, -3) over Jets (7-4), 26-21: Minnesota is a stout home team (6-1 run) and clinches the NFC North with a win if Detroit loses, but pocket-bound Kirk Cousins could face a big pass rush. Can Mike White, in his fifth pro start, capitalize on the Vikings generous pass defense? Edge goes to the home team with the more explosive offense.

@Eagles (10-1, -5) over Titans (7-4), 27-17: Tennessee’s defense has not allowed more than 20 points in eight straight games, but the Eagles are a challenge like no other. Jalen Hurts last week became the first player in 70 years to pass and run for at least 150 yards and throw two TDs. Best bet: Hurts saves a scoring pass for A.J. Brown, the ex-Titan.

@Ravens (7-4, -8 1/2) over Broncos (3-8), 24-13: Anybody still expecting Denver’s constipated offense to solve itself and for embattled Russell Wilson to turn around an awful season? Not me. Broncos’ best shot is its defense keeping the score ground-floor low.

@49ers (7-4, -4) over Dolphins (8-3), 28-17: Dolphins Coach Mike McDaniel faces his former 49ers on a five-game win streak. This is the NFL’s best defense, the best Miami has faced and the biggest challenge for Tua Tagovailoa. A breakout from Christian McCaffrey (if healthy) is in the offing.

Seahawks (6-5, -7 1/2) over @Rams (3-8), 23-17: The Rams are so down and depleted – missing Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp – that the chance of an L.A. upset seems remote. Even in those dire straits, I’m chancing Rams with the points.

Chiefs (9-2, -2) over @Bengals (7-4), 37-34: A rematch of last year’s AFC title game, won 27-24 in OT by Cincy. The Bengals have won six of seven in the series, but it’s tough to imagine Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid not finding a way here.

Chargers (6-5, Even) over @Raiders (4-7), 27-23: The Chargers are better on the road (4-2) than Vegas is at home, and Josh Jacobs is questionable for the Raiders. A pick-’em game tilts for me on Justin Herbert against a bottom-fourth Vegas pass defense.

@Cowboys (8-3, -11) over Colts (4-7-1), 24-9: Dallas enjoys a big edge in rest, playing on Thanksgiving last week, while Indy played Monday night. The Cowboys’ NFL-leading sack attack is fixin’ to devour stationary target Matt Ryan.

@Buccaneers (5-6, -3 1/2) over Saints (4-8), 21-17: An easy sell because of Tom Brady, but otherwise a stinker for Monday night and an indictment of what has become of the NFC South. I still trust Tampa’s defense, and I cannot see Brady being outscored at home by Andy Dalton.

Byes: Cardinals (4-8), Panthers (4-8)

Last week: 10-6 overall, 5-10-1 vs. spread.

Season: 104-75-1, 86-88-6

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