Spread: Patriots by 1 1/2

Outlook: Arizona is on a ridiculous 1-11 skid at home, but that has to end sometime … right? How about on Monday night? Arizona Coach Kliff Kinsgbury, his seat getting hotter and coming off a bye, better hope so. New England has had trouble defending running quarterbacks, and I look for Kyler Murray to have a big night, especially afoot.

Prediction: Cardinals, 23-20

Spread: 49ers by 3 1/2

Outlook: I look forward to watching San Francisco’s great defense try to make up for the injury absence of Jimmy Garoppolo, as rookie Brock Purdy makes his first NFL start. I will ride the Niners’ defense at home, where they have won nine of their last 10 games. The Bucs rank 26th in scoring offense, and the 49ers are not where you find a remedy for that.

Prediction: 49ers, 20-16

Spread: Lions by 2

Outlook: I get the betting line, sort of. The Lions have won four of five, and Jared Goff is having a sneaky-good year. But Kirk Cousins counters with plenty of firepower to get into, and win, a shootout. The Vikings also clinch NFC North title with a win or tie.

Prediction: Vikings, 34-30

@Bills (9-3, -9 1/2) over Jets (7-5), 31-13: Buffalo had won four in a row in this AFC East rivalry before the Jets won, 20-17, a month ago. But not again. The Bills are on a 8-1 run at home, are rested after playing last Thursday, and have an improving ground game to take heat off Josh Allen.

@Bengals (8-4, -5 1/2) over Browns (5-7), 27-23: The Bengals would be on a seven-game winning streak if not for a 32-13 loss to the Browns on Halloween. Now, revenge will be sweet. The Bengals getting Joe Mixon back from a concussion adds to that feeling, although the bet line feels fat.

@Cowboys (9-3, -17) over Texans (1-10-1), 41-10: Houston has been mathematically, scientifically and theologically eliminated from playoff contention. Mismatches don’t get much bigger than this Governor’s Cup game. Even the enormous point spread gives us only a brief pause.

@Titans (7-5, -4) over Jaguars (4-8), 27-20: Trevor Lawrence expects to play through a toe injury, and the lousy pass defense he will face gives the Jaguars a medium-sized upset shot, except Jacksonville has lost 19 of 20 road games.

Eagles (11-1, -7) @Giants (7-4-1), 23-17: This one got a look for Game of the Week, except I don’t give the Giants much chance. Philly has won 15 of 16 as the favorite, but I still hunch New York with the points on its home field.

@Steelers (5-7, -2) over Ravens (8-4), 19-16: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is expected to miss the game with a knee injury, and the drop-off to Tyler Huntley is steep. Plus, Pittsburgh is on a 4-0 series roll vs. Baltimore.

Chiefs (9-3, -9 1/2) over @Broncos (3-9), 24-13: The Chiefs have won 13 straight in this lopsided series, and the Broncos are on an 0-7 skid in division games. Denver’s defense may keep it close(ish), but the Broncos winning outright would be a stunner.

@Seahawks (7-5, -4) over Panthers (4-8), 27-16: Seattle’s running back room is a triage center; otherwise, a clear pick. Seattle’s defense has the second-most takeaways in league, and Carolina has lost nine in a row on the road.

Dolphins (8-4, -3 1/2) over @Chargers (6-6), 27-23: Miami is 7-0 when scoring more than 17 points, and the Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. And the Chargers have lost five in a row as an underdog. I have fair confidence in this pick, but an upset would only mildly surprise.

Byes: Bears (3-10), Colts (4-8-1), Commanders (7-5-1), Falcons (5-8), Packers (5-8) and Saints (4-9)

Last week: 10-4-1 overall, 8-7 vs. spread

Season: 114-79-2, 94-95-6