UPSET OF THE WEEK

Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7), 1 p.m. Saturday (CBS)

Spread: Bengals by 3

Outlook: Cincy has already clinched a playoff berth, but the Patriots desperately need a win as they seek a wild-card berth. I see the Patriots at home bouncing back big from that embarrassing loss to Vegas last week. I’m gut-feeling Joe Burrow and the Bengals are due for a slip, and Cincy has lost seven straight trips to Foxborough. If Mac Jones can avoid turnovers, then the venue and the Pats’ defense should be enough.

Prediction: Patriots, 23-20

GAME OF THE WEEK

Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4), 4:25 p.m. Saturday (FOX)

Spread: Cowboys by 5

Outlook: Both NFC East rivals have clinched the playoffs. Philly can win the division and home-field throughout with a victory here, but that’s a big ask. QB Jalen Hurts has been ruled out with a sprained shoulder, and his absence, well, hurts. The falloff to backup Gardner Minshew is large. I still give the Eagles a tall shot – more so if Cowboys defensive leader Micah Parsons (illness) can’t go. Dallas is 7-1 at home, but its D has not been as strong lately (as in last week’s loss to Jacksonville), and Dak Prescott has seven interceptions in his past four games behind a shaky-at-times O-line. Cowboys are on a 5-1 run at home in the rivalry, but even sans Hurts, I see the Eagles keeping this one inside the betting line.

Prediction: Cowboys, 27-23

OTHER GAMES

Bills (11-3, -8) over @Bears (3-11), 23-17: The early wave of 11 Saturday games begins with Buffalo able to clinch the AFC East by winning, or if Miami loses. Bills have won five straight and Chicago has dropped seven in a row, and both trends should continue. But hunch Justin Fields and the Bears keep it closer than the line. Buffalo has failed to cover in six of its last eight.

@Browns (6-8, -3) over Saints (5-9), 17-10: The over/under of 32 1/2 at the time of this pick stood as the lowest in the NFL since 2009. That’s two struggling offenses plus two stout defenses plus a winter storm forecast for northeast Ohio. Saints, a dome-team, will be affected more adversely. New Orleans is 1-5 on the road, and the Browns’ ground game will be key.

@Titans (7-7, -3) over Texans (1-12-1), 21-16: Forget Houston’s abysmal record. The Texans lost by one score to the Chiefs a week after doing the same vs. the Cowboys, and I give ’em an XXL-sized upset shot against a Titans team that will start rookie Malik Willis, as Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury will shut him down. Despite it all, but anxiously, I’m riding Derrick Henry for the win.

@Chiefs (11-3, -10) over Seahawks (7-7), 30-17: Seattle played last Thursday, but the rest/prep edge won’t be enough to halt a 1-4 slump that has dropped the Seahawks off playoff pace. KC has clinched its division but still fights for home field throughout. Seattle has an atrocious run defense if the Chiefs would care to give Patrick Mahomes’ arm a bit of a rest.

@Vikings (11-3, -4) over Giants (8-5-1), 28-17: Minnesota has clinched its division. New York can clinch a playoff spot with a win and with two losses among Commanders/Lions/Seahawks. The Vikings must avoid a letdown after last week erasing a 33-0 deficit for the biggest comeback win in NFL history. Home field, where the team has won eight of the last nine, should help. An upset by the Giants would not surprise, but their offense can’t keep up.

@Panthers (5-9, +2 1/2) over Lions (7-7), 23-20: An oddly high-stakes game, with Detroit playing itself into the wild-card chase and Carolina only one game off the lead in the god-awful NFC South. Our upset pick relies on the Panthers being a much better team at home and odds suggesting the hot Lions are due a stumble.

@Ravens (9-5, -7) over Falcons (5-9), 24-6: Baltimore can cinch a playoff berth with a win if either the Dolphins or Patriots lose. Lamar Jackson (knee) will miss a third straight start, and backup Tyler Huntley is a bit banged up, too. So the Ravens’ D and J.K. Dobbins will carry the day. Atlanta is 1-6 on the road, and Baltimore’s pass rush will be a hard lesson for rookie QB Desmond Ridder.

@49ers (10-4, -7) over Commanders (7-6-1), 20-17: San Francisco is division-clinched and rested after playing last Thursday, but with no real shot at winning home field throughout. Could mean a letdown? Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy (sore ribs) will face a tough test vs. Washington’s pass rush. Take the points.

@Steelers (6-8, -2 1/2) over Raiders (6-8), 26-23: Vegas is a tempting upset pick, but Pittsburgh was hopeful of getting Kenny Pickett back from his concussion, and the home lift should be bigger than usual. Why? It’s Saturday’s prime-time stage, and the Steelers are honoring the 50th anniversary of the iconic “Immaculate Reception” play – just days after the unexpected death of franchise legend Franco Harris. The Raiders were gifted a win last week, but they’re on a 2-9 skid vs. sub-.500 teams.

@Dolphins (8-6, -3 1/2) over Packers (6-8), 30-24: Miami clings to the seventh and last AFC playoff spot after an 0-3 road trip as Week 16 begins. Green Bay, its hopes on fumes, must win out and pray. Aaron Rodgers faces a beatable Miami pass defense that Justin Herbert and Josh Allen just strafed pretty good. Green Bay can run the ball, too. And the Packers pack a good pass defense to challenge Tua Tagovailoa. I still like the Dolphins, though, with only medium confidence. The Dolphins have two days more rest than Green Bay and are on an 11-1 run at home, where the defense plays appreciably better.

@Rams (4-10, +3) over Broncos (4-10), 16-13: The second of three Christmas Day games features the two lowest-scoring offenses in the league and two disappointing teams playing out the string. And at QB we get the Baker Mayfield Reclamation Project vs. Russell Wilson, whose first season in Denver has been an enormous letdown. Denver is 1-6 on the road and the Rams have won four straight in series.

Buccaneers (6-8, -7 1/2) over @Cardinals (4-10), 23-18: The Christmas night prime-timer hardly merits the stage, although at least there’s the promise of Tom Brady, miffed he didn’t make the Pro Bowl, putting on a show just for spite. Arizona is infamously awful at home (1-12 skid) and is down to third-string QB Trace McSorley. Still, I like the Cardinals with the points. Brady has six turnovers in the last two games and the Bucs just ain’t that good.

Chargers (8-6, -5) over @Colts (4-9-1), 27-23: The Monday nighter will see Los Angeles clinch a playoff with a win if the Dolphins, Raiders and Patriots all lose. It also will be a stage for Nick Foles as he supplants Matt Ryan as Indy’s QB in the wake of a 39-36 loss in which Colts did the impossible by somehow blowing a 33-0 lead. Foles will give the Colts enough of a spark enough to beat the point spread, if not win the game outright.

Week 15: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-8-1, .469 vs. spread.
Season: 129-93-2, .581 overall; 103-114-7, .475 vs. spread.