PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Saints (2-2) at Patriots (1-3), 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

Spread: Patriots by 1

Outlook: Bill Belichick is coming off the worst loss (38-3 to Dallas) of his storied coaching career. New Orleans is coming off a bad home loss to Tampa, and Derek Carr will play through a sore shoulder if he plays at all. In a near pick-’em game, with the edge to the home team dialing up big defense that reflects Belichick’s uncommon desperation.

Prediction: Patriots, 20-16

GAME OF THE WEEK

Cowboys (3-1) at 49ers (4-0), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Spread: 49ers by 4

Outlook: The Niners ousted the Cowboys from last season’s playoffs, 19-12, but the score won’t go that low this time. Dallas has outscored opponents 108-13 in its three wins, while Brock Purdy has yet to lose (9-0) in a regular-season start for the 49ers. San Francisco has won 10 home games in a row and should stay on that roll as the Cowboys keep it within a field goal.

Prediction: 49ers, 27-24

UPSET OF WEEK

Titans (2-2) at Colts (2-2), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Titans by 2 1/2

Outlook: Two erratic teams that earn nobody’s confidence makes for one risky pick. I’ll chance Indy with star RB Jonathan Taylor back from his ankle injury, no longer sulking for a trade and poised to give the Colts a huge lift. Taylor vs. Derrick Henry portends a throwback ground duel that could have points at a premium.

Prediction: Colts, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

Bills (3-1, -5 1/2) over Jaguars (2-2), 30-17, in London: Jags getting left tackle Cam Robinson back from a PED suspension will bolster a sputtering offense, but the Bills counter with the season debut of pocket-crashing Von Miller. Edge: Miller. Josh Allen and Bills have scored 123 points across three straight wins.

@Dolphins (3-1, -12) over Giants (1-3), 38-16: Miami is this week’s biggest betting favorite at 12 points. Tua Tagovailoa should feast on a lousy Giants defense, as Daniel Jones operates behind a truly horrible offensive line. Miami’s defense is a disappointment, but I just do not see this opponent with the weapons to capitalize, or even to cover.

@Falcons (2-2, -1 1/2) over Texans (2-2), 23-20: Houston has been a pleasant surprise behind impressive rookie C.J. Stroud, but Atlanta is a different team at home, where it has won four in a row.

@Lions (3-1, -10) over Panthers (0-4), 31-13: Detroit has the firepower (even with Amon-Ra St. Brown iffy) to get out of reach for what struggling Carolina rookie Bruce Young is putting up. Panthers surprised the Lions 37-23 late last season, and Detroit comfortably get its payback here.

Ravens (3-1, -4) over @Steelers (2-2), 19-17: Kenny Pickett is working with a sore knee and will be missing injured TE Pat Freiermuth, and Pittsburgh will have trouble scoring. Baltimore has won three of five trips to Pittburgh, and I’m liking Lamar Jackson to find a way again while still leaning on the Steelers, plus-4.

Eagles (4-0, -4 1/2) over @Rams (2-2), 27-23: Will Rams WR Cooper Kupp make his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury? Will him playing be the difference? Doubt it. Philly is on a 6-1 run against the Rams and are great on the road (11-1 away streak).

Bengals (1-3, -3) over @Cardinals (1-3), 24-20: The NFL knows no greater disappointment than Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Arizona has won four of the past five meetings and has an upset lane here if RB James Connor can exploit a bad Cincy run defense. Riding Bengals here, but barely, and nervously.

Jets (1-3, +2) over @Broncos (1-3), 21-17: I like the Jets defense to make it tough on Russell Wilson. And what better shot at a second straight good game from beleaguered Zach Wilson than against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense?

Chiefs (3-1, -4) over @Vikings (1-3), 34-24: While Patrick Mahomes should see big numbers against the Vikings beatable secondary, Minnesota has a chance to hang in a shootout. But that would take a clean game from human turnover machine Kirk Cousins – never a safe bet.

Packers (2-2, -1) over @Raiders (1-3), 23-18: The Monday night stage marks Vegas receiver Davante Adams’ first game against his longtime former team. Green Bay is rested after playing last Thursday, is on a 14-2 streak vs. teams with a losing record, and should extend the Raiders’ 2-9 skid in prime time games.

Bye week: Browns (2-2), Buccaneers (3-1), Chargers (2-2), Seahawks (3-1)

Last week: 9-7 overall, 5-11 vs. spread

Season: 39-25, 32-30-2

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