GAME OF THE WEEK
Eagles (10-2) at Cowboys (9-3), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Spread: Cowboys by 3 1/2
Outlook: Both NFC East rivals can clinch a playoff spot by winning (with help) and bump up in the race for the No. 1 conference seed. The Eagles won the first meeting, 28-23, and coming off that huge loss to San Francisco, its hard to imagine them losing two straight. I can, though. They will. The Eagles allow the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Dallas is 6-0 at home and enjoys a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday.
Prediction: Cowboys, 30-27

UPSET OF THE WEEK
Bills (6-6) at Chiefs (8-4), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Spread: Chiefs by 1 1/2
Outlook: The Bills are on a three-game losing streak and K.C. has lost three of five. The Chiefs lost to Green Bay on Sunday night and rarely drop two in a row. The Bills must win out for any prayer of catching Miami in the AFC East and must get on a roll even to snatch a wild-card spot. If Josh Allen limits the picks to one or none … upset!”
Prediction: Bills, 28-24

OTHER GAMES

@Falcons (6-6, -2 1/2) over Buccaneers (5-7), 20-17: First place in the weak NFC South is in play. Atlanta won the earlier meeting, 16-13, and I would expect a rematch every bit as competitive and as low-watt on excitement, so let’s ride the venue.

Lions (9-3, -3 1/2) over @Bears (4-8), 23-20: Detroit is a wobbly 9-3 after surviving a bunch of close calls, including last month’s 31-26 win over Chicago where the Bears led by 12 points with four minutes left. But the Bears have QB Justin Fields back since then, and his team is coming off a bye.

Colts (7-5, +1) over @Bengals (6-6), 27-23: Indy has won four in a row and is 5-1 on the road. Cincy QB Jake Browning was great in his maiden NFL start Monday. Expect a drop-off. Plus, Colts RB Zach Moss will chew clock against a subpar run defense.

@Browns (7-5, -3) over Jaguars (8-4), 17-13: The Jags are 5-0 away from home and likely would be favored here if not for an ankle injury that makes QB Trevor Lawrence almost certain to not play. That means C.J. Beathard for his first NFL start since 2020, a huge drop-off.

@Saints (5-7, -4 1/2) over Panthers (1-11), 24-13: Saints QB Derek Carr (concussion) is iffy to play and backup Jameis Winston, about to turn 30, is erratic but with an upside and out to show he’s still starter material somewhere. Carolina is seldom, if ever, a good bet.

Texans (7-5, -3 1/2) over @Jets (4-8), 21-16: Sure, it’s possible the highly unanticipated return of QB Zach Wilson could spark the Jets. Yes, it’s possible the injury to top receiver Tank Dell could derail C.J. Stroud a bit. But these are not things you’d actually bet on.

@Ravens (9-3, -7 1/2) over Rams (6-6), 27-17: Baltimore is on a 6-1 run coming off a bye and the Ravens are smokin’ hot on offense, great on defense and jostling as the best team in the AFC. Unless the Ravens are looking ahead to San Francisco on Christmas night, they should roll at home.

Vikings (6-6, -3) over @Raiders (5-7), 27-23: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury, is expected back. But Josh Dobbs is coming off a four-pick game and may be on a short leash. With Jefferson back, the “over” on that 40.5 number is looking good.

@49ers (9-3, -10 1/2) over Seahawks (6-6), 34-17: The Niners can be the first to clinch a playoff spot here by winning, if the Vikings or Packers lose. San Francisco beat the Seahawks 31-13 just two weeks ago. Sounds about right again.

@Chargers (5-7, -3) over Broncos (6-6), 24-20: This might have been the toughest call of Week 14 for me. Justin Herbert should click against an overrated Denver defense, although a little more help from a stalled Austin Ekeler would be well-timed.

Packers (6-6, -6 1/2) over @Giants (4-8), 21-17: In a game sharing the Monday night bill with Dolphins-Titans, I’d feel better if I were sure Aaron Jones and Christian Watson both would be available for the Packers. The Giants are coming off a bye and should keep it inside the bet-line.

@Dolphins (9-3, -13) over Titans (4-8), 41-16: Miami is 8-0 vs. teams with a losing record and 5-0 at home, facing a Tennessee team that is 0-6 on the road. Miami was last 9-3 in 2001, and it’s the club’s first time hosting on the Monday night stage since Dec. 11, 2017.

Byes: Cardinals (3-10), Commanders (4-9)
Last week: 8-5 overall, 7-6 vs. spread.
Season: 120-73, 96-91-6