Professor Jared Diamond of the University of California says that we Americans are gobbling up the world’s resources 32 times faster than the people of the developing world. He says that this poses a problem – and he couldn’t be more right.

He also suggests that the problem might be solved by voluntarily reducing our share – “living lean” – and he couldn’t be more wrong. It’s one thing to swap light bulbs, it’s still another to give up electric dishwashers and snowmobiles. If human nature were not a sufficient barrier to voluntarism, the decision-making frailty of democracy would preclude such action. It is beyond reason that we could elect enough people of courage, intelligence, and agreement to legislate a sufficient national sacrifice.

We are far more likely to reach out by arms. In fact, we already have. America has saddled the strong horse of military force to protect our rate of consumption and that horse is already taking us on a rough ride. The muscular foreign policy that has characterized the Bush administration (and to some extent, all U.S. administrations since World War II) is an example of just how uncomfortable that saddle is apt to become. The current “crusade” in Iraq is a case in point. This war is all about oil – and it was child’s play for a dedicated group of fear mongers, using smoke and mirrors, to lead our democracy into that war.

The world has 6.5 billion people, and by the middle of the century will have 9 billion. Malthusian forecasts of increasing population causing world starvation have been avoided so far by the fortunate discovery of commercial fertilizer. Food-wise, we may still have some wiggle room. The world should be able to produce enough nitrogen to feed 9 billion. But oil and metals are finite – we can’t grow more – and their depletion is dependent entirely upon consumption.

Some 5.5 billion of the world’s 6.5 billion are in developing countries, a ratio that permits America to live high on the consumption hog. If Kenya doubled its population of 30 million, it would have little affect on world resources, since Kenyans consume so little. But the consumption demand of 30 million additional Americans would be equal to nearly 1 billion Kenyans. The growth solely in the town of Gorham in the past generation equals a third of a million Kenyans.

The universal goal of governments is an improved life for its people, and America is supporting that goal. Foreign aid, the World Bank, agencies of the United Nations, no less than the remarkable efforts of private individuals in the developing world, are all aimed at “improving lives with more energy, more housing, more food, better health care – in other words, more consumption. If the consumption rate of the developing world increases just 10 percent, world resources will be depleted 70 percent sooner. Oil wells forecast to run dry in 50 years will stop pumping in 20.

This raises an unsettling question. In the interests of world peace, is an increase of living standards in the developing world desirable?

China’s rate of consumption is above that of the developing world, but is still 11 times below ours. When China reaches our rate (which they promise to do within a generation or two), the demand for oil will increase by 106 percent and for world metals by 96 percent. Add India to that mix and the figures soar to nearly 300 percebt. If the Chinese want air conditioning, widescreen TVs and barbecue grills, they are going to have to compete for existing resources. The recent price of $100 a barrel for oil is the canary in the coal mine.

The 800 pound gorilla in our future: We can probably get by with 9 billion people on earth – but who believes we can live with 90 billion?

Rodney Quinn, who lives in Gorham, is a former Maine secretary of state. He can be reached at [email protected]. His book, “Gorham During the Great Depression,” can be purchased at the Baxter Memorial Library. Proceeds benefit the library.