PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (10-2) at Dolphins (5-7), 8:30 p.m. Monday (ESPN)

Outlook: I’m no slave to trends but some you simply cannot ignore. One is that few teams in recent history are better in prime time than New England, and few are worse than Miami. The Patriots are on a 16-3 run under the lights while the Dolphins are in a 4-14 rut, including 0-3 this season by combined score of 112-40.

Spread: Patriots -11

Prediction: Patriots, 31-23

GAME OF THE WEEK

Eagles (10-2) at Rams (9-3), 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Outlook: These teams ranked 1-2 in point differential, both are gunning for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and it’s the first meeting of Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two picks in the 2016 draft. Rare to see a 10-2 team getting 21/2 points, making Philly too tempting to pass up. The difference here, to my eye: the Eagles’ ground game is excellent and L.A.’s run defense is not. Jay Ajayi is averaging 7.9 yards per carry for Philadelphia.

Spread: Rams -21/2

Prediction: Eagles, 31-27

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Packers (6-6) at Browns (0-12), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Outlook: Winless no more after Sunday, the Browns will avoid joining the 2008 Lions as the only team to go 0-16. Cleveland’s run defense is good enough to force the game into Brett Hundley’s hands, but some of this is just a hunch that Cleveland, which has been competitive in four of its six home games, is simply due a break and a bounce.

Spread: Packers -31/2

Prediction: Browns, 23-20

OTHER GAMES

n at Bills (6-6, off board) over Colts (3-9), 20-13: The game was off betting boards because Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor was iffy (knee), and it’s a steep falloff to rookie Nathan Peterman or Joe Webb. I like the Bills in any case, though, with a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy vs. a Colts squad that is 1-5 on the road.

n at Bengals (5-7, -6) over Bears (3-9), 21-14: Two struggling offenses, although Andy Dalton is playing better lately. Chicago has lost five straight, is 1-4 away from home and is mentally heading to the first tee.

n at Giants (2-10, +4) over Cowboys (6-6), 24-20: Dallas is injury-wracked, and the Giants will be fired up at home now that interim coach Steve Spagnuolo corrected Ben McAdoo’s colossal mistake and reinstated Eli Manning as starter.

n at Chiefs (6-6, -4) over Raiders (6-6), 27-20: Huge AFC West game for playoff jockeying. I like Kansas City in a venue pick, especially with WR Amari Cooper (ankle) iffy for Oakland. The Raiders won 31-30 in Week 7 as time expired. Payback.

n at Buccaneers (4-8, off board) over Lions (6-6), 23-17: The one was off the board because Lions QB Matthew Stafford had his throwing hand stepped on last week and is questionable, with green Jake Rudock in the wings. That’s enough to take a chance on the Bucs at home.

n at Panthers (8-4, +21/2 over Vikings (10-2), 21-20: I like the strong home underdog vs. a Vikings squad that is overdue for a stumble after eight straight wins.

n at Texans (4-8, -3) over 49ers (2-10), 24-16: The upside of Jimmy Garoppolo vs. the awfulness of Tom Savage gives the Niners a big upset shot. Still, when the better all-around team also is the home team, don’t overthink it.

n at Broncos (3-9, +1) over Jets (5-7), 19-17: Yes, Denver has lost eight straight. Yes, Trevor Siemian can be bad. But I have a hunch the Broncos will bounce back at home vs. a Jets team that is 1-4 on the road.

n Titans (8-4, -3) over at Cardinals (5-7), 23-16: I went back and forth like eyes at a tennis match on this one. But the Cardinals are injury-wracked and the Titans’ ground game will own the clock.

n at Chargers (6-6, -6) over Washington (5-7), 31-20: Red-hot Philip Rivers has led the Chargers neatly back from an 0-4 start. Washington is 2-0 out west with impressive wins over the Rams and Seahawks, but the third time’s not the charm.

n Seahawks (8-4, +21/2 over at Jaguars (8-4), 20-19: Jacksonville has supplanted Seattle as the NFL’s best defense, but the Seahawks still bring it. And I trust Russell Wilson more than Blake Bortles by about a mile.

n at Steelers (10-2, -5) over Ravens (7-5), 24-20: Great rivalry and two hot teams on the Sunday night stage. In Big Ben I trust, but I also like the Ravens getting the points. Joe Flacco is 4-3 his last seven trips to Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are missing two key cogs in Juju Smith-Schuster and Ryan Shazier.

Last week: 13-3 overall, 10-6 vs. spread

Season: 114-78, 78-104-10

By Greg Cote, Miami Herald