PATRIOTS THIS WEEK
Saints (1-1) at Patriots (1-1), 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Spread: Patriots by 3
Outlook: The five-TD opener for Jameis Winston was a mirage and last week’s back-to-earth crash shows it’s not to be trusted. Winston is especially not to be trusted to beat Bill Belichick in Foxborough. Sam Darnold had his way with Saints’ defense last week. So will Mac Jones.
Prediction: Patriots, 19-13
GAME OF THE WEEK
Buccaneers (2-0) at Rams (2-0), 4:25 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Spread: Buccaneers by 1 1/2.
Outlook: The week’s only battle of 2-0 teams? Tom Brady vs. the NFL’s best defense? The Rams winning at home barely seems like an upset, except Brady losing always feels like one, right? The edge on defense goes to Aaron Donald’s Rams and Matthew Stafford’s arrival has given the Rams enough pop to hang with Brady’s bunch.
Prediction: Rams 34-31.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Packers (1-1) at 49ers (2-0), 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)
Spread: 49ers by 3.
Outlook: Aaron. I mean both Aarons. Rodgers, of course, but it’s Aaron Jones running big against what’s been a leaky 49ers run defense that seems like the key. Major injuries at running back foist too much pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo for the 49ers, who have lost four in a row and eight of its past nine home games.
Prediction: Packers 27-24.
OTHER GAMES
• @Bills (1-1, -7 1/2) over Washington (1-1), 27-16: Washington comes in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and that’s it for their advantages. Their defense has disappointed so far, and QB Taylor Heinicke won’t outscore Josh Allen.
• @Browns (1-1, -7) over Bears (1-1), 23-17: Rookie QB Justin Fields gets his first start and pass rush and tough road venue will present a large challenge, but the Bears’ defense and Cleveland missing Jarvis Landry should help keep it inside the bet line.
• Ravens (1-1, -8) over @Lions (0-2), 38-16: Lamar Jackson is 14-0 in the regular season when favored by eight or more and the Lions defense has given up average of 39.5 points in its six-game skid dating to last season.
• @Titans (1-1, -5) over Colts (0-2), 27-23: The Colts are best/most surprising 0-2 team out there and has won eight of past nine trips to Nashville. But Carson Wentz is iffy and Derrick Henry has bull-rushed 489 yards in past three meetings. Even so, Colts keep it close.
• @Chiefs (1-1, -6 1/2) over Chargers (1-1), 30-24: The Chiefs are on a 12-2 series run, but their past eight wins overall have been by six points or fewer because their shaky defense keeps opponents in range.
• @Giants (0-2, -3) over Falcons (0-2), 24-20: New Atlanta Coach Arthur Smith is already feeling heat, while the Giants are showing signs of life. Matt Ryan leading an upset would not shock, but like the Giants at home, with extra rest, covering the small number.
• @Steelers (1-1, -3) over Bengals (1-1), 21-16: Cincinnati has lost of 11 of past 12 to the Steelers, who have Ben Roethlisberger (pectoral) and pass rusher T.J. Watt (groin) iffy to play. I’m hunching Big Ben plays and it’s enough for the small cover.
• Cardinals (2-0, -7 1/2) over @Jaguars (0-2), 37-13: Kyler Murray & Co. will be way too much for the Jaguars defense to handle. Urban Meyer was 83-9 at Ohio State. Welcome to the NFL. Trevor Lawrence has five picks in two games. Welcome to the NFL.
• @Broncos (2-0, -10 1/2) over Jets (0-2), 24-9: Denver plays its home opener poised for its first 3-0 start since 2016. Even missing injured linebacker Bradley Chubb, the Broncos defense should be too much for Jets QB Zach Wilson.
• @Raiders (2-0, -4) over Dolphins (1-1), 23-20: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is out and I haven’t seen enough offense from Miami to go all in on the upset, but this one feels like a field goal’s difference and the consolation of a road cover.
• Seahawks (1-1, -1 1/2) over @Vikings (0-2), 34-30: Give Minnesota a very big upset shot, but Seattle has Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf against an inexperienced, beatable Vikes secondary. Kirk Cousins won’t be able to outscore that.
• @Cowboys (1-1, -4) over Eagles (1-1), 27-24: Dallas has lost seven straight prime-time games and Philly is on a 4-1 run on Monday nights. But trends must end and expect a big show by Dallas in its home opener.
Last week: 12-4 overall, 9-7 vs. spread.
Season: 20-12, .18-14,
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