It’s obvious that the country as a whole is at an inflection point, politically – more so than during the typical election year – even without accepting the Democratic Party’s insistent rhetoric that the fate of democracy itself is at stake.

The results of this presidential election may well set the tone for decades for both parties, regardless of which side prevails. That’s a topic for another day. What’s less obvious from the outside is that Maine politics is at a major inflection point this year as well, and here, too, the results have the potential to influence our politics for decades to come.

It may seem as if things are relatively sleepy in Maine politically this year, with the 2nd Congressional District race the only major contest, but what happens there – and in state legislative races down the ballot – could well have serious reverberations.

Coming up immediately will be a race for the Blaine House in 2026 to replace Gov. Janet Mills. As it stands, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have many obvious candidates who’d be able to rally the party behind them without opposition, or easily win a primary. Moreover, it’s not just the Blaine House coming up: After Sen. Angus King easily wins reelection this year, it’s easy to see him deciding to retire in 2030. Sen. Susan Collins, meanwhile, has started raising money for a 2026 race but hasn’t officially announced she’s running; even if she does run this time, she may well not run again in 2032.

So, we could very well have three wide-open statewide races in the next 10 years, and neither party seems to have a deep well of top-tier talent available to compete in them.

If Rep. Jared Golden wins reelection, he could well end up running for governor – or, even more likely, the U.S. Senate – in the future. If he does, though, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be able to avoid a primary completely, or even avoid serious competition. He’s done his best to carefully hew to the center in order to win re-election in the conservative Second District, but in doing so he’s consistently alienated the progressive Democratic base. They’re unlikely to sit idly by should he try to run for higher office, but they don’t have any obvious candidates to rally around.

1st District Rep. Chellie Pingree has had several opportunities to run for either the U.S. Senate or the Blaine House and has consistently – and wisely – elected to retain her safe congressional seat, avoiding the mistake that her predecessor Tom Allen made. It seems as if she’s accepted her spot in the House of Representatives, focusing on acquiring powerful committee roles or perhaps some kind of leadership role at some point. So, who might progressives enlist to oppose Golden if he runs for higher office in the future?

While the current slate of legislative leadership and constitutional officers seem to be to his left, few of them have ever run a major campaign before. Part of the problem that liberals will have in trying to oppose Golden if he seeks a promotion is that he’ll be leaving his congressional seat open, which is much more realistic target for any aspiring politician. Still, if he first wins reelection, he’ll face a more liberal opponent in a future hypothetical statewide primary: the question is how many and how serious they are.

Maine Republicans are even more short of rising talent than the Democrats. We’ve seen how they couldn’t find quality opponents against either King or Pingree, and it wasn’t just because they’re popular incumbents; they really don’t have anyone. Rather than the relative stability of recent years, we’re likely to see a mad scramble and the rise of unknown aspirants rapidly to higher office.

This isn’t entirely unprecedented. After his disappointing gubernatorial campaign in 1974, few would have predicted that George Mitchell would eventually become a U.S. senator, let alone the Senate majority leader. Similarly, few would have predicted after her gubernatorial campaign that Collins would wind up being a U.S. senator.

We now face a similar situation unfolding, except it could well be for all of the state’s highest elected offices and in both parties. The next decade in Maine politics is going to be quite interesting, and this year could well set the stage for those years – not just through the 2nd District race, but through legislative elections and leadership contests as well.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel