At the end of September, after Israel declared the termination of a three-month period of intense fighting in southern Gaza, State Department officials suggested that perhaps it had achieved all it might militarily. Much of Gaza lay in ruins, with around 90% of the population displaced. The general view was that there was nothing left to bomb, no reason to continue to fight. After the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, Israel was pressed especially hard to join cease-fire talks.

Far from yielding to this call for peace, however, Israel escalated. It resumed its bombing campaign in the north of Gaza, particularly around Jabalia. It also bombed sites in Syria and territory held by the Houthi in Yemen. It bombed Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon and even went so far as to bomb 14 banks it claimed were channeling Hezbollah funds. To date, some 1,085 buildings in Lebanon have been struck.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brashly declared the war was not over and furthermore was winnable. But his original war aim – to make Hamas militarily and administratively inoperable – was not remotely practical and would at least double the current death toll to well over 80,000.

There appear to be at least four reasons for Israel’s escalation.

First, there is Netanyahu’s own precarious position as prime minister. As is well known, it is only the fact that he leads the government that prevents him from being prosecuted for serious crimes, including corruption and election fraud. Were he to take part in a negotiated settlement, the extreme right-wing orthodox parties on whose support his survival depends would bring the government down, exposing him to indictment. For that reason alone, he has a strong motivation to keep the war going.

Second, escalation bolsters the case, which Netanyahu put in his speech to Congress, that he is fighting America’s battles by taking on Iran, the U.S.’s primary Mideast enemy. This keeps open the arms pipeline and America’s virtually unwavering support for Israel in the United Nations. The Biden administration recently signed off on a new arms deal worth $20 billion for delivery in 2028 and has also only once failed to vote in support of Israel in the U.N. Security Council.

Third is the deterrence factor. Israel has been surrounded by hostile states since 1948 and has twice gone to war with them. For the most part, however, it has kept hostilities at a relatively low level. This time is different. It has exacted a toll of over 43,000 deaths in retaliation for Hamas’ killing of 1,200 Israeli citizens. And it has turned numerous towns and cities in Gaza to rubble, all accomplished with a minimum of casualties on the Israeli side. Underlying this is Israel’s complete domination of the air. Air strikes can be conducted with pinpoint accuracy, as when the Hezbollah leader, Nasrallah, was assassinated last month. With these tactics, Israel has demonstrated to its foes that it is capable of inflicting devastating harm with minimum risk to itself. It has no need to threaten to use nuclear weapons with this kind of overwhelming power at its disposal. It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will be deterred from escalating its military activities while facing the threat of becoming the next Gaza (downtown Beirut is already being bombed).

Fourth, and most significant of all, Israel’s strategy appears to be aimed at turning itself into a regional superpower, armed and backed diplomatically by the United States. This would explain why it has now escalated fighting on five different fronts: Syria, Houthi-controlled Yemen, Gaza, Iran and Lebanon.

What can be done? Any durable path to peace must begin with a permanent cease-fire. This must be followed by an embargo on all arms transfers. Under these conditions, a United Nations peacekeeping force could be brought in to prevent any resumption of hostilities, and to provide security for medical and other humanitarian task forces. Finally, all combatants and their allies or proxies must begin negotiating a robust settlement that includes the return of the hostages, the rebuilding of war-ravaged towns and cities, and a commitment to honor prewar boundaries.

This path to peace is tenuous, but there is no alternative.