Now that 2024 is finally, completely and totally in the books, it’s time to start looking ahead — and I don’t mean to the next Maine gubernatorial election or the midterms. I’ve already done that. No, I mean the next presidential election, scheduled to be held 1,401 days from now on Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2028.

It might seem a little premature — or, heck, even completely ridiculous — to even be thinking about the next presidential election, let alone writing about it, but we’re in a bit of a quiet period here, so indulge me. The next Legislature hasn’t yet gotten to work, Trump hasn’t been sworn in yet, and the Senate hasn’t begun debating his Cabinet nominations, so there’s not much going on now — seemingly.

I say seemingly because, behind the scenes, candidates are already making preparations for what could well be one of the most important and interesting presidential elections of our lifetime. This stands in stark contrast to 2024, which, despite all the twists and turns, in the end unfolded rather predictably. Yes, Democrats dumped their nominee after the primaries, but they did so in the most predictable possible way by nominating the vice president without opposition.

It’s hard to judge based on current polls, because they’re mainly just evaluating name recognition, but neither party has a clear front-runner. Sure, Kamala Harris is way ahead in Democratic polling, but does anyone really want her to run again, let alone right away, after the 2024 debacle? It would be better if she had some accomplishments to her name first, and to stake out her own reputation a little bit more clearly. Moreover, fellow Californian and current Gov. Gavin Newsom is almost certain to run in 2028, and he’s unlikely to defer to her again. After her, only Pete Buttigieg breaks the single digits.

The Republican side is similarly muddled. At the moment, JD Vance and (hold your breath) Donald Trump Jr. lead the field, but only with a combined total of 46%. It seems unlikely that these two would run against one another since Trump Jr. was a big advocate for putting Vance on the ticket, but stranger things have happened.

Even if they don’t, the numbers make it clear that Trump’s base isn’t completely sold on either one of them, and that leaves the field open for someone else to overtake one, or both, of them. All of this is to say that polls this early, other than for points like this, aren’t reflective of the true state of the race. We saw this back in 2016 when Jeb Bush was a big leader in early Republican polls. It was only because everyone knew who he was.

What the polls don’t show is anything about who might break out from the rest of the field to challenge them, if those early front-runners even end up running at all. In both cases, though, it does show us that in the post-Trump era, neither party is particularly pleased with, or confident in, its options. That could lead to a highly competitive presidential primary for both parties, something that’s been sorely lacking in recent years. The last time it happened in any way, shape, or form was in 2016. In every election since then one or both parties have had an incumbent of some kind running.

Even in 2016, Clinton was clearly the establishment favorite who was part of the prior administration. There will be no such figures in 2028. If Vance runs, he’ll have only been vice president for four years, and it’s questionable how much support he’ll be able to consolidate in that time.

So, both parties may well have wide-open fields in four years, which raises an interesting possibility: a brokered convention — what could have happened this year for Democrats — in one or both parties. Even if we don’t quite get there, we’ll certainly have very competitive primaries on both sides that will take a while to settle.

It will be interesting to observe both parties as they struggle to define themselves after 12 years revolving around fealty, or opposition, to Donald Trump. Somehow, both parties will actually have to come up with original ideas again. And, just as in prior years, whichever candidate in either party enunciates those most effectively will likely end up becoming president. Just be prepared for it to be someone you’re not currently considering, or have perhaps barely even heard of right now — and for the process to be a lengthy and contentious one.