PATRIOTS THIS WEEK

Patriots (2-7) vs. Colts (4-5) in Germany, 9:30 a.m. (NFL)

Spread: Colts by 2

Outlook: Another 9:30 a.m. kickoff for second of two games in Frankfurt, though this matchup pales compared to Chiefs-Dolphins last week. (Maybe casual German fans think they’re getting Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady?) I’ve taken some hits believing the Patriots can’t be this bad and expecting a turnaround … and yet here I go again. New England has won 9 of 10 against Indy and Beleaguered Bill will find a way again.

Prediction: Patriots 23-20

GAME OF THE WEEK

49ers (5-3) at Jaguars (6-2), 1 p.m. (FOX)

Spread: 49ers by 3

Outlook: Jacksonville has won five in a row; San Fran has lost three straight. But I like the Niners, who are slightly better on both sides of the ball and overdue … just as the Jags are due to lose. The three-game skid coincided with Deebo Samuel’s absence with a shoulder injury. He’s back and is a spark Brock Purdy and company need.

Prediction: 49ers 27-17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Falcons (4-5) at Cardinals (1-8), 4:05 p.m.

Spread: Falcons by 2

Outlook: Arizona expects the debut of QB Kyler Murray, out since injuring his right knee in December. He ran for 23 TDs his first four seasons and gives the Cardinals a needed jolt if he’s at 100%. Tough to bet on a 1-8 team, but Atlanta has lost 9 of 10 road games.

Prediction: Cardinals 26-23

OTHER GAMES

@Bengals (5-3, -6 1/2) over Texans (4-4), 30-20: Potential shootout as a hot Joe Burrow – with 10 TD passes in a four-game win streak – faces C.J. Stroud (rookie-record 470 yards, five TDs last week). The Texans defense is sneaky good, but lean Burrow at home presuming banged-up WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both play.
Saints (5-4, -3) over @Vikings (5-4), 24-17: Minnesota has somehow won four in a row despite losing Justin Jefferson and now Kirk Cousins. Fill-in QB Joshua Dobbs played hero last week, but will find a New Orleans’ pass defense much tougher to crack.

@Steelers (5-3, -3) over Packers (3-5), 21-16: Two stout defenses and low-watt offenses. Give the Pack a mid-size upset shot but Pittsburgh is rested after playing last Thursday, has won five straight at home and is on a 9-3 run despite being an underdog eight times.

Titans (3-5, +1) over @Buccaneers (3-5), 19-17: Rookie Will Levis gives the Titans a spark, even with the team on a seven-game road slide. Tampa Bay has lost four in a row and its past three at home. Watch the Titans lean on Derrick Henry.

@Ravens (7-2, -6 1/2) over Browns (5-3), 23-20: The Ravens – who rolled 28-3 in Week 4, though Deshaun Watson did not play – enter on a four-game winning streak and have dominated Cleveland at home, winning 15 of 17 in Maryland. Saddle that and ride.

Lions (6-2, -3) over @Chargers (4-4), 28-24: Detroit is coming off a bye while the Chargers played Monday, a notable edge for the Lions, who are on a 6-2 run following byes and have won seven of nine on road. Jared Goff faces a leaky Chargers pass defense.

@Cowboys (5-3, -17) over Giants (2-7), 31-6: It’s the season’s biggest point spread, and injuries to QBs Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor leave the Giants’ miserable offense in the hands of undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito. Dallas has won 11 straight home games.

@Seahawks (5-3, -6 1/2) over Commanders (4-5), 24-20: Geno Smith and Seattle face a Commanders defense allowing the third-most points in league. The bet line feels fat, though, and Washington keeps it close, with seven of nine games decided by one score.

@Raiders (4-5, +1) over Jets (4-4), 17-16: Two dismal offenses so two TDs may be enough here. The Jets’ D will try to hector rookie QB Aidan O’Connell but the Raiders seem rejuvenated by the coaching change and will do enough at home to outscore Zach Wilson.

@Bills (5-4, -7) over Broncos (3-5), 30-17: Denver’s bye last week followed a stunning upset of Kansas City, so that surely will tune Buffalo’s focus. (Besides, you’re not that good, Bills.) The Bills are a strong home team (16-3 run), while Denver withers away on a 3-15 road skid.

Byes: Dolphins (6-3). Chiefs (7-2), Eagles (8-1), Rams (3-6)

Last week: 7-7 overall, 5-9 vs. spread.

Season: 80-56, 60-71-5