Although it’s been a momentous month for American political news – indeed, the most momentous of my lifetime – here in Maine, things have been relatively quiet.

The Legislature has adjourned, primaries are over and although the general election campaigns have begun, there’s not much going on so far. Rather than making major news, Maine candidates have seemed to be adhering to the traditional political schedule and letting things ramp up after Labor Day.

Even the national chaos hasn’t effected Maine politics much. 2nd Congressional District candidate Austin Theriault has tried to call out Rep. Jared Golden for his ongoing silence about the tumult – a staple of Golden’s career – but hasn’t made much headway (Zoom press conferences aren’t enough, guys). It helps, of course, that Democratic Party insiders have anointed Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee without giving voters a chance to have a say in the process. That lessens the chaos, and avoids putting their candidates in an awkward position at a contested convention.

Still, even absent a truly democratic Democratic convention, will recent – and future – events have much of an impact on Maine races? The answer, in the words of the Magic 8 Ball, is “Reply Hazy, Try Again.” When President Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, public polls were barely beginning to show the result of his disastrous debate performance slightly more than three weeks earlier. Those polls weren’t particularly bad for Democrats, showing a slight dip for Biden, but not some disastrous crash. Their internal polls, though, clearly had much worse numbers across the board – thus the intense pressure campaign to push Biden out of the race. That’s also why the pressure campaign by party insiders seemed so out of sync with reality; they had access to information we didn’t, in the form of both better polls and, perhaps, insight into the real state of Biden’s health.

If the internal polls were correct, Biden staying in the race may well have cost Democrats not only the 2nd Congressional District but the Maine House or Senate. Now we’ll never know. For the moment, replacing Biden seems to have resulted in a slight uptick, arresting Democrats’ decline in the presidential polls without making enormous gains. That means that, while the presidential race is still tough, at least the candidate is no longer a drag down-ticket. That’s surely a relief for candidates in battleground districts like Golden, even if he isn’t quite ready to support Kamala Harris – that would involve taking a stance on something. In this case, Golden’s unwillingness to take a stand seems just as likely to alienate his supporters and dampen Democratic enthusiasm as it is to help him.

It will also be interesting to see whether the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump will have much of a political impact in the long run. Before Biden’s withdrawal from the race, it seemed that the event – combined with a well-run, unified convention – would give Republicans all over the country an immediate, if perhaps short-term, boost in the polls. Replacing Biden, however, seems to have robbed Republicans of any short-term bounce after the convention at all. The fast pace of subsequent events has, unfortunately, erased any chance that the assassination attempt could reset the national political mood.

It’s also hard to see how either vice-presidential selection will have much of an impact in Maine. In choosing JD Vance, Trump picked someone who has come to embrace his own views and who doesn’t bring a lot of experience to the table or strength with a particular demographic. Similarly, it’s hard to see how Harris’ selection of a running mate will have much impact on politics here in Maine.

None of this is to say that Maine politics exists in a vacuum or is unaffected by national events. If Harris does well, Maine will tilt more toward Democrats; if Trump overperforms, Maine will lean more toward the GOP. As is typically the case, our election results will be dictated by a combination of national events and local enthusiasm. At the moment, the state of politics, both nationally and in Maine, seems to have been reset to what it was before the debate. Echoes of the recent national tumult may continue to trickle down to affect results here in Maine, and in close races – like in the 2nd District – those echoes may well affect an individual outcome without resulting in a major shift statewide in either direction.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel