Maine’s congressional delegation may be immune from the anti-incumbent fever sweeping the country.
Challengers will have a tough time generating enough national interest and campaign money to unseat Democratic U.S. Reps. Chellie Pingree of the 1st District and Mike Michaud of the 2nd District or GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe on Election Day 2012, say a number of analysts.
Additional Photos
But if any of that trio is susceptible, it may be Michaud in the more rural, conservative northern Maine 2nd District, observers say.
Currently, none of Maine’s federal lawmakers up for re-election is rated vulnerable by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report or Rothenberg Political Report in Washington.
But GOP state Senate President Kevin Raye of Perry is poised to run against Michaud and is the challenger in the best position to make a serious run at a Maine incumbent, analysts say.
Presidential politics also could come into play in the 2nd District, pumping up the profile of the Michaud-Raye race and resulting in more national party and outside interest group money pouring into the district.
President Obama won Maine by 18 points over Republican John McCain in 2008, though his numbers are down in Maine like everywhere else. But even if Obama is judged to be doing OK in Maine next year, the 2nd District could lure a GOP candidate looking to steal a single electoral vote.
Maine is not a winner-take-all state. Two of its four electoral votes go to the overall winner, but the loser can still win a single electoral vote by winning one of the congressional districts.
Obama won 61 percent of the vote in 2008 in the 1st District, compared to 55 percent in the 2nd District, according to the Almanac of American Politics.
John Baughman, a politics professor at Bates College who is a Democrat in his personal views, said by September the GOP presidential campaign might “drop some money in the 2nd to test the waters. The question is how much money is worth investing for one electoral vote when there are a lot bigger prizes out there?”
Michaud — who often opposes Obama on trade issues and was a paper mill worker — is a good fit with the 2nd District, says Mike Cuzzi, a Democrat and Mainer who was Obama’s New Hampshire primary deputy state director.
“It would clearly be a significant upset if Kevin Raye were to unseat Mike,” Cuzzi said. Still, in a “rural and values voter” district “that is going to be the most significant and substantive (federal) race we have in Maine,” Cuzzi added.
It will be much tougher for challengers in the other two Maine federal races in 2012.
Maine political consultant Dennis Bailey, who has advised mostly Democrats as well as former Independent Gov. Angus King, said Snowe will be attacked from the right in the GOP primary by tea party-affiliated Scott D’Amboise of Lisbon Falls and Andrew Ian Dodge of Harpswell. She’ll also take fire from the left, says Bailey, by one of the Democrats vying to challenge Snowe, state Rep. Jon Hinck of Portland and former Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap of Old Town.
But it doesn’t appear Snowe’s potential rivals are gaining the traction needed to really damage the well-liked Snowe and her more than $3.2 milion war chest, Bailey said.
Snowe “will say, ‘I am in the middle, I am being attacked from both sides,’ ” Bailey said.
Christian Potholm, a government professor at Bowdoin College, said if Democrats really thought Snowe vulnerable, then Pingree might well have made a run at Snowe.
Potholm, a Republican who runs a bipartisan polling firm whose clients have included King, Republican William Cohen and Democrat John Baldacci, is among the analysts skeptical that Pingree is vulnerable.
GOP state Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney of Springvale is weighing a run against Pingree, but Republicans look at the 1st District “and see that the district hasn’t voted Republican in a long time,” Potholm said. “The national Republicans are far less likely to put money into that race no matter who is running, than in the 2nd District.”
Still, Brent Littlefield, a Maine native and Washington-based GOP consultant who has worked with many Maine Republicans including Gov. Paul LePage, warned that by next summer the Maine political landscape could look different: “The president could be even worse (in the polls) or the president could be way up. It is so early right now.”
MaineToday Media Washington Bureau Chief Jonathan Riskind can be contacted at 791-6280 or at: jriskind@pressherald.com
Twitter: Twitter.com/MaineTodayDC
Copy the Story LinkSend questions/comments to the editors.
Success. Please wait for the page to reload. If the page does not reload within 5 seconds, please refresh the page.
Enter your email and password to access comments.
Hi, to comment on stories you must . This profile is in addition to your subscription and website login.
Already have a commenting profile? .
Invalid username/password.
Please check your email to confirm and complete your registration.
Only subscribers are eligible to post comments. Please subscribe or login first for digital access. Here’s why.
Use the form below to reset your password. When you've submitted your account email, we will send an email with a reset code.