This evening will be quite nice with some sunshine and warm air. However, this is the last in a long string of nearly perfect weather days which have graced this part of the country much of the time this summer. When we all think back to the summer of 2014, at least up until now, I think many will agree this has been a pretty awesome summer of weather.

While thunderstorms plagued some areas over the weekend, for the most part it’s been a great stretch of weather the past 5 days. There could be a few sprinkles before midnight, but the bulk of the rain is tomorrow. The map below is for midnight.


Tomorrow we watch a vigorous systems move through the region which will bring a steady period of rain and even some gusty wind. The rain should begin between 3AM and 6AM first west of Worcester and then progressing east during the pre-dawn hours. From the morning to the evening commute on Wednesday there will be periods of rain and some of it could be heavy.

This loop shows how the air masses are going to be moving across the country during the upcoming week. The blue and green colors are cooler air, the yellow and orange warmer. The clash of the air masses over us tomorrow is what will bring the rain.

air mass move

There is a flood watch posted for the western section of the area (dark green) and a coastal flood watch for areas in light green. The tides are still running a bit high as we are just past the full moon and we will have a sustained southeast wind which can pile up water along the coast. I expect any inland flooding to be mostly small stream and road issue and the coastal flooding to be minor.

flood interior

Rainfall will average 1-2 inches from this system with a few spots seeing less and some of seeing a bit more than this. Just like in winter when the average snowfall is predicted, there is always going to be pockets of the region where more or less occur. The ground is quite dry and can easily absorb what rain we do see.

Later in the evening Wednesday the rain will taper to showers and clearing will overtake the area by morning. While Thursday could still bring some clouds early in the morning the trend is going to be for a better day with increasing sunshine and dry conditions.

Humidity levels are going to rise this evening and become rather uncomfortable for a few hours tonight. It?s not going to be very warm, so I don?t think most of us will be terribly bothered by the mugginess, but it?s going to be a big contrast to the dry air of the past week.

On Thursday, as Canadian air returns to the region dew points will fall, (moisture in the air) and it will once again feel quite comfortable. While tonight and tomorrow might be a big uncomfortable for sleeping, the great sleeping weather returns Thursday night many of us seeing readings back into the 50s again.

The first 11 days of August continue to run below normal in the temperature department and while rainfall is also below normal, I think we will make up much of the deficit in the next 48 hours.

pwm august 14

This August is quite similar to August 2013 when we also had a cool period with very comfortable nights. The long range shows average or cooler than average temperatures for much of the remainder of the month, but does indicate a possible warmer than average period late this month or early in September.

I’ll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter.