As of this evening the winter storm is still on the docket for Saturday afternoon and the first half of the overnight. There is going to be a narrow band of 6 inch plus snow totals along the coast and areas around Portland are likely to be in this band.

The snowfall map below gives a good idea how much snow will fall during this roughly 12 hour storm. Looks for the snow to begin in Portland around 9 AM and then end about 12 hours later.

A winter storm warning is posted for a good deal of the coastline with weather advisories, the less severe of the two, posted further inland. The mountains might not see much if any snow from this system.

Morning Blog Entry Below
When there is a storm in the forecast the first thing I do when I get up is quickly look at the overnight run of the models. I know some forecasters who stay up until 2 a.m. waiting for them, but my sleep is way too important for that.

One component of the forecast that changed overnight was with temperatures, they are slightly warmer. I don’t think this will impact coastal Maine too much, but there could be some sleet that mixes in with the snow from Brunswick eastward. The storm will eventually become quite intense, but it’s also going to move very rapidly. This means the chances of a high impact storm are quite low.

24 hours before the precipitation begins I’d like to think I am 80-90 percent confident in the forecast. The storm after all is only a day away. This morning, I am feeling closer to 70 percent confident in the forecast, still good odds, but there’s a larger part of me than usual wondering about the eventual outcome.

That said, it’s my job to give you the maps, which is really what most people want anyway. What you’ll find below is my map showing snowfall projected totals. There is a very tight snowfall gradient with this storm. Areas over the western Maine mountains might not even see a flake. I’ll update this later this afternoon and give a more specific set of maps.

There is still a winter storm watch posted for the coastal plain back through the interior. This watch means basically we are waiting until there is some more information this afternoon to gain more confidence in the prospect of heavy snow. The National Weather Service in Gray has a nice write-up today about their thinking:

The timing has moved up a bit, so I expect precipitation to have already started or begin around sunrise. Those of you east and north of Portland will see the precipitation start last. This also means the storm will exit early, ending between 8 and 11 p.m. southwest to northeast.

Ranges of snow are given for several areas. Unlike some storms where the mountains see the most snow, this storm will impact the coastline the greatest.

Notice temperatures tomorrow evening around 7 p.m. are forecast by one model to be just above freezing. This means the snow is wet and heavy and could create some power issues where accumulations are highest. I don’t expect widespread power issues, but there could certainly be areas where the power is out tomorrow evening. It won’t be bitter cold until early next week, so if you lose power, at least temperatures outside won’t be near zero.

Sunday brings a return to sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Another storm will likely miss us Monday, but pull in a lot of cold air for the middle of the week. The track obviously could change, but that’s how it appears right now.

Highs on Tuesday will only reach the teens for one of the colder days we’ve seen this winter. The deep cold will relax as we head into the weekend.

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