4:30PM Update
As of this hour a tornado watch is posted for Maine’s southern most county. This means conditions are favorable for the possibility of tornadoes in this area. Elsewhere, more typical strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with very humid air in place especially south of Augusta and even more pronounced south of Portland.

The threat of severe weather will end by the middle of the evening with cooler and drier air on the way for the rest of the workweek.

Unless you haven’t watched, read or listened to a weather forecast the past 24 hours, there’s no way you don’t know there is a possibility of severe weather today. Every meteorologist is talking about it, which makes me nervous. I think the days that often seem most likely for severe weather are the ones something surprises us.

As I write, an area of showers is pushing east through the region. These showers mark the leading edge of warm and moist air that will be part of the equation for the severe weather possibility later today.

Here’s the reality about today’s chance for storms. Most of us are going to see shower activity. As mentioned, there is already plenty around. Some of us will get a thunderstorm, but few of us will see severe weather. Severe thunderstorms, like most things meteorological have a defined set of criteria. In this case it’s a thunderstorm producing hail that is at least 1 inch in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. Although lightning can be deadly, the NWS doesn’t use it to define a severe thunderstorm. Most areas won’t meet this criteria and is why most places won’t see severe weather.

During the next few hours warm and humid air will move north and be in place when a cold front comes through this afternoon. Our biggest severe outbreaks often come when the atmosphere is able to heat up and be lifted by something like a cold front. While there are pieces of the severe weather puzzle in favor of development, there are other issues that will tend to negate the storms.

The computer models are indicating a line of showers and storms to move through during the early afternoon. If and when this happens, it can often take some of the energy needed for the late day storms away. The loop below is a forecast by one model.

What I notice is after this mornings showers there is another batch of storms and showers moves through between 1 and 4 p.m. and is followed by a lesser organized area this evening. It’s the second push of storms where severe weather could also occur, but this second area is also less a sure possibility.

If you have plans to head to southern New England, there is a Red Sox game this evening and with showers and storms in the area, it could be delayed, but I think it will be played. Humidity levels will be high early this evening and fall by morning to comfortable levels.

The next couple of days look dry and comfortably warm. There will be low levels of humidity the rest of the week as well. Friday’s weather is cooler, but dry. Later in the weekend it becomes unsettled and chilly for late June with some periods of rain likely Sunday or Monday. While I don’t expect a washout this weekend, keep tune to the forecast and follow my tweets @growingwisdom on Twitter for more updates.

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