“Standing here addressing you, the Class of ’09, I can’t help but think of the difficulties ”“ and the opportunities ”“ that await you ”¦”
There’s no question that speakers at high school and college commencement face a challenge this year ”“ putting a positive spin on the economic troubles that are all around us. This is a time for messages of hope, and there is nothing more uplifting than the idea of youth and new beginnings.
But these are not optimistic times. At this moment, the question among commentators and analysts seems to be whether the economic free fall is over, and reason to hope that we have finally touched bottom.
For those who once took prosperity for granted, these are dispiriting questions. And there are some economists who are staking their reputations on the proposition that we have not yet glimpsed the worst.
But the nation is investing heavily in a recovery, and consumer spending and business investment are believed to be strengthening. There should be at least enough hope on the horizon to carry us through commencement season.
Hope and confidence are exactly what we need to reinvigorate the slumping economy. And in Maine, there is evidence that residents are now taking a more positive view of the economy than they did a year ago, according to surveys conducted by Critical Insights, a market research firm based in Portland.
“It appears possible that Mainers perhaps feel the economy has bottomed-out and has nowhere to go but up,” the firm wrote in an analysis released last week. “Indeed, residents’ outlook on the economy is more positive than it has been in the last seven years.”
This is not exactly optimism ”“ 71 percent believe the economy is worse today than it was a year ago. And according to Critical Insights polling, more residents (34 percent) are now worried about a job loss in the household than a year ago.
No one knows whether the economy has reached the low point of its downward cycle, but the growing belief that the tide may soon turn can’t be discounted. Last week the stock market surged after a survey found consumer confidence has risen substantially.
“It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink,” President Barack Obama said last week. Many of us are prepared to believe him.
So the message to graduates should be one of cautious optimism. Soon enough we will be counting on their energy, talents and productivity to keep the economy moving upward.
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