While this Christmas shopping season was stronger than in 2009, a sign that consumers are feeling more confident than they have in quite a while, two segments of the economy aren’t keeping pace.

Unemployment remains close to 10 percent, and housing prices took a substantial dip in October (the most recent month for which data are available) for the third month in a row.

A survey of 20 major markets by Standard & Poor’s housing index showed prices dropped 1.3 percent, which is good news for buyers but not for sellers — or people with mortgages that are now underwater.

That trend is contrary to other critical ones for the economy, however.

Retail sales returned to levels seen just before the recent recession began in 2007, and manufacturing and exports are back at pre-recession levels as well. The view of economists and business leaders is that things are poised for an expansion.

That upturn will be boosted, these analysts say, by Congress’ recent vote to retain taxation levels at the 2001 levels and even cut workers’ payroll taxes by a third, from 6.2 percent of pay to 4.2 percent for the coming year.

That’s good news, but it’s not unalloyed. Until expansion means that more Americans are working (recent news that U.S. firms created more jobs abroad than at home are particularly troubling), it isn’t going to be reflected in the public’s overall estimation of how well they are doing.

And if homes aren’t profitable, fewer people will build new ones and fewer people will buy their first one or be able to afford to move to a better one.

While the downturn does benefit those with jobs who can snap up homes they couldn’t afford before, the overall housing outlook won’t improve until joblessness falls.

It’s all connected, you know.

 

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