It’s difficult to believe this twisted wreckage was once a powerful political party, capable of completely dominating Maine government. To view the sad remains left in the wake of bitter infighting among its hardcore factions that rendered it incapable of winning elections is a lesson in the dangers of hubris. Not to mention the consequences of rampant stupidity.

The Republican Party? No way. I’m referring to the Democrats. Next year’s Democrats, that is.

I can understand your confusion. The GOP is clearly in disarray after blowing the 2012 legislative campaign. It has a governor who is slightly less popular than deer ticks. It changes chairman more frequently than a teenager on energy drinks changes television channels. It has almost no base in the southern part of the state and is on shaky ground in the north, east, west and central.

But Republicans have a solid grip on the U.S. Senate seat that will be on the 2014 ballot, with incumbent Susan Collins facing no serious (or even laughable) opposition from within her party or without. The GOP also has a fighting chance next year of taking the 2nd Congressional District seat, currently held by Democrat Mike Michaud, who’s likely to run for governor. There’s no reason to think the elephant party won’t be competitive in state Senate races, and it’s tough to believe it could do any worse than the status quo in the state House.

Republicans have a few problems – mostly of the kind that rhymes with Mauler Rage – but they’re all sort of petty compared to those faced by the Democrats.

For instance, the donkey party has nothing that remotely resembles a credible candidate to oppose Collins. When she trounces whatever schlub the desperate Dems put up in 2014, it will mark 26 years since that party has won a Senate contest. Lots of eligible voters weren’t even alive when a Maine Democrat last held that post, and even a lot of those who were probably can’t recall his name (hints: The Waterville native, who no longer lives in Maine, once served as majority leader, still accepts high-profile international assignments and shares a last name with Dennis the Menace).

But even if the Democrats concede the Senate race yet again, accept that they’ll soon have diminished numbers in the Legislature, face the possibility they’ll lose Michaud’s House seat and wonder how they could ever have picked Troy Jackson for a position in legislative leadership, they’re confronted by a graver concern:

Party infighting over contentious social issues may cost them next year’s gubernatorial election. And it may divide the Democrats so severely that they’ll be incapable of mounting serious challenges in races for many years to come.

The Democratic establishment is delighted at the prospect that Michaud will be the party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2014, because the congressman has a moderate image. The Dem strategists think that will allow him to attract blue-collar votes in the 2nd District and pick up support from 1st District middle-of-the-roaders, who might otherwise defect to independent Eliot Cutler.

Trouble is that Michaud’s alleged moderation is mostly based on two factors: He sometimes casts anti-abortion votes, and he almost always opposes anything remotely resembling gun control.

On those issues, Michaud is in line with most of his current constituents, but in southern Maine, his positions are severely out of whack with the vast majority of his party’s members. A lot of them simply won’t vote for any candidate who isn’t consistently pro-choice and anti-gun.

Which, coincidentally enough, describes Cutler.

If the independent can peel off even a small percentage of ardent liberals who can’t stomach Michaud, Cutler can make the same kind of showing at the polls as he did in 2010. By which I mean he’ll finish second again. Michaud, having lost crucial support in the 1st District fades to third. And the winner is the aforementioned individual with the anger management issues.

In the aftermath of that scenario, Democratic bigshots will be looking for someone to blame, and the obvious candidate is the party’s left wing.

The Dem leaders will take out their wrath on the voters who cared more about issues than winning elections, the extremists who put ideology ahead of practicality, the idealists who stayed true to their beliefs at the expense of handing the Blaine House back to a right-wing Republican.

There’ll be the sort of open warfare within the Democratic Party that hasn’t been seen in Maine politics since the last GOP state convention. The Dems will be so intent on slaughtering their own that Republicans will be able to win elections with even the most absurd candidates.

Well, maybe not Bruce Poliquin.

Correction: In a column last month, I erroneously wrote that following Ted O’Meara’s term as chairman of the Maine Republican Party, he went on to lose a race for Congress. In reality, O’Meara’s failed congressional bid came first.

Tear apart my arguments by emailing me at aldiamon@herniahill.net.

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