Someone tweeted me a question yesterday asking if the media was hyping the storm or we really were getting a nor’easter. The answer to the first part of the question is probably, (depending the media source) on yes to the second part.

A nor’easter is simply a low pressure area that moves up along the eastern seaboard bringing with it northeasterly winds. You could also say winds come from the northeast during one of these storms. You can have a nor’easter anytime of the year, even July.

Many of you likely hear the word nor’easter and immediately think snow. This isn’t incorrect because our largest and most intense snowstorms are nor’easters. However, we can also have heavy snow without one.
With that bit of meteorology cleared up, let me outline the weather the next few days. You’ve likely heard the storm is going to last through early Friday making this a 3 to 4 day nor’easter.

Storms do stall and bring long periods of rain and snow. One of the most extreme examples occurred back in 1969 in the 100 hour snowstorm. That nor’easter stalled along the coast in similar fashion. Portland received over 25 inches of snow and the snow total stood as the city’s largest until 1979. That storm had some crazy snow totals in the mountains with over 90 inches in the White Mountains of New Hampshire! Interestingly, 1969 was an El Nino year, similar to what we are expecting this winter. This is part of the reason some are forecasting a cold and snowy winter.

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Storms that move this slowly, while certainly keeping clouds and damp weather over the area, will not bring heavy rain for 3 days. (at least not to southern New England). There will be periods when it’s just cloudy with some spotty mist or drizzle, at other times heavy rain will ensue. The surface map loop below shows how the storm will move over the next several days. The L off the coast is the storm and you can watch the dates change at the top of each map.

Unlike some coastal storms, beach erosion and flooding shouldn’t be a problem with this event. Tides are astronomically low and the strongest winds from this storm will be well to the north. Part of the coast north of Brunswick may have some minor issues with beach erosion form the persistent wind.

Rainfall totals will end up in the one to three inch range with most areas in the middle of this. The bulk of the rain should fall Wednesday night into Thursday. Before this, there will be more showery rains. The map below is a radar forecast for later this afternoon. Notice most of the area is rain-free, but there are showers around especially north.

Today for example, the showers will be widely scattered and most numerous over the coast. If you do see a shower it could be briefly heavy. The map below from Weatherbell Analytics shows how much rain the GFS model is forecasting through Friday afternoon.

This same on again of again pattern continues through the night and into early Wednesday. The steadier and heavier rain will wait until the afternoon or evening tomorrow to start falling. This means the roads will certainly be wet in the morning, but it’s the evening commute that might see problems from heavy rain.

Thursday continues very rainy, overnight the rain will taper to drizzle or showers again. Friday, the storm is close enough to bring clouds and the morning showers, but improvement will slowly occur from the southwest very late in the day. This sets up a nice weekend filled with at least partial sunshine and pleasant late October temperatures.

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