This evening’s update finds a Winter Storm Warning still posted for areas from about Augusta north. South of there the risk of heavy snow is no longer significant. The image below is from the folks at the National Weather Service in Caribou. Notice some spots could exceed a foot of snow.

Too Far East?
As I get ready to head to sleep my concern is that the second batch of rain and snow remains off the coast. If this happens the warning criteria won’t be reached and the snowstorm will not really materialize.

If the second wave of low pressure shifts track slightly farther out to see then my snowfall map will also be incorrect. I’ll update via Twitter and here tomorrow morning.

The weather picture has one low pressure area passing by tonight. At the same time a second area or storm will merge with the first and form a very large storm over eastern Canada Sunday morning. This storm will be large and intense and bring with it a lot of wind.

Cold Enough For Snow
There is cold air above us this evening with the mild air in just lower part of the atmosphere close to the ground. As the precipitation comes down harder late at night and during Sunday morning it will pull the cold air into the system. This is a very dynamic situation and one which needs to be monitored extremely closely hour-by-hour for any changes.

It’s not an exaggeration that a difference of 2 degrees could mean you are shoveling or just sloshy through puddles tomorrow morning.

The other factor in addition to the potential snow is the weight of the snow, the leaves still on some trees and all that wind. This can combine to bring down trees, create power outages.

Below is a radar forecast through 4AM on Sunday. (click this image to loop it) What you want to notice on the loop is two batches of precipitation with a break between. See how the first batch pushes through Maine and is green, then changes to blue? That is the rain forecast to change to snow.

Notice in the last frame there is another batch of very heavy precipitation just east of southern New England it is this second batch that could bring the heaviest snow and wind to eastern Maine and clip southern and central Maine. A difference of 50 miles in the track of this second batch is going to be critical. This is why it’s an hour to hour forecast late tonight and tomorrow morning.

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The snowfall map below gives an idea of what I am expecting to happen late tonight and Sunday morning. There will be more snow the further east you go. As I wrote as slight change in temperature or track and Portland could see several inches more or nothing at all. I will update the forecast as I get new information.

Wind
Wind is also an issue with a wind advisory in place for coastal southern Maine. Winds could gust over 40 miles per hour late tonight and Sunday.

Coastal Flooding
There is a coastal flood advisory for some minor flooding early Sunday morning at high tide, but this isn’t a serious storm for flooding along the coast.

Skies clear for Monday with sunshine returning. It’s still breeze and chilly. Tuesday turns milder. Don’t forget to set the clock back one hour tonight as well.

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