So much can go right for the Boston Red Sox.

So much can go wrong.

Clay Buchholz could become the ace and Rick Porcello equally dominant. David Ortiz will have a Ramirez batting behind him again, and the pair could form a reincarnation of the dynamic duo.

Or not.

These 2015 Boston Red Sox are a team of potential. We’re not talking young potential, which leaves you wondering if the players can perform on the big stage.

Almost all of them have performed brilliantly in the past.

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But they have also crashed because of injury or simply poor performance.

On paper this is a very good team that should contend for the playoffs.

On the field?

Here are five areas to scrutinize during the season:

ROTATION

Put the best seasons of Buchholz, Porcello, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley and Joe Kelly together and you come up with a combined 67-40 mark with a 3.08 ERA. Impressive, but only one pitcher had his best season last year (Porcello at 15-13, 3.43).

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Buchholz has hit the disabled list in each of the last five years, six times in the last seven.

Porcello is the steadiest, but not dominating, with a career 4.30 ERA.

Masterson can grind an opponent into the ground with his sinking fastball, but he can also get hit frequently if he’s not precise. In his 14-10 season in 2013, he gave up five or more runs seven times.

Miley is a decent No. 4 starter who gives Boston a left-hander in the rotation and someone who can eat innings (averaging almost 200 in his three seasons). Last year (8-12, 4.34) was his worst, so Boston hopes that was a blip.

Kelly is still developing (and recovering from biceps soreness this spring). He went from a 2.69 ERA in 2013 to 4.20 last year. His mid-90s fastball, with sink, makes him a sleeper in the rotation.

Prediction: Buchholz will show flashes of his dominance but Porcello will emerge as the ace. Look for the Red Sox to shop their excess of prospects for a pitcher before the trade deadline (Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto top a list that could lengthen as teams fall out of contention).

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BULLPEN

The first worry here is closer Koji Uehara, 40, begins the season on the disabled list. His backup, Edward Mujica, doesn’t inspire loads of confidence. Manager John Farrell said he would go to Mujica except when matchups called for someone else.

Junichi Tazawa is back, and the sometimes dominant/often-injured Alexi Ogando has been added. There are lefties Craig Breslow (good in 2013, not so much in ’14), Robbie Ross and Tommy Layne.

The intriguing arm is Matt Barnes, a starter who throws a lot of heat when he relieves. Combined with a plus curve and improving change-up, Barnes could be the surprise even though he’ll start the season at Pawtucket.

Prediction: Things will shake out all right (remember when two closers went down in 2013 before Uehara took over?). Barnes could end up in the role or as a key setup man.

HEALTH

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We’ve already mentioned Uehara, who turned 40 on Friday and has been hobbled with a sore hamstring.

Ortiz hasn’t missed serious time since 2008, when he played in just 109 games. But Ortiz is 39, so every time he shows the slightest limp or looks uncomfortable after a big swing, there will be gasps.

Shane Victorino, 34, is coming off back surgery and is often slowed by nagging injuries. Mike Napoli, 34, plodded on with ailments to fingers, back and a toe last year, along with sleep apnea, which he had surgically repaired during the offseason.

Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez are both 31. They’re not graybeards but they have been hampered by injuries – Pedroia limited by left wrist pain the past two years, and Ramirez played 214 games over the past two years because of several issues.

Catcher Ryan Hanigan, 34, was supposed to be a backup to Christian Vazquez, now gone for the season after Tommy John surgery. Hanigan has been on the DL twice in each of the past two seasons.

Prediction: We don’t want to guess about players getting hurt, but we can assume Victorino is going to need some down time. Enter Rusney Castillo.

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PROMISE/YOUTH

Mookie Betts, 22, in center field is drawing rave reviews. But touted prospects have struggled before – Xander Bogaerts’ .240 average last year as evidence.

Betts seems prepared for the big stage and Bogaerts, 22, is expected to improve.

Then there’s Castillo, the 27-year-old rookie from Cuba who will begin in Triple-A but could provide an impact later in the season.

Catcher Blake Swihart, 23, will join Castillo in Pawtucket but is considered one of those sure-thing prospects. With Vazquez, 24, out, Swihart may be called up this year.

We’ve talked about Barnes, 24, the rookie right-hander. For pitching depth, Boston also could call on lefties Eduardo Rodriguez (who turns 22 on Tuesday), Brian Johnson (24) and Henry Owens (22).

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Prediction: Betts will come as advertised, although there are going to be misplays in center fielder (but not many, and they will get fewer). Castillo and Swihart are promoted by July.

AL EAST

Everyone keeps talking about the parity of the division, but the Orioles won 96 games last year. They are no fluke. Baltimore lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis to free agency but hopes to compensate with the return of catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado from injury, and first baseman Chris Davis from suspension. The pitching remains deep and Chris Tillman looked solid again this spring (0.92 walks/hits per inning).

The Yankees might stay afloat for a while but too much can – and will – go wrong. The Blue Jays lost starter Marcus Stroman to a knee injury and Toronto may not recover. The Rays’ magic is over.

Predicted order of finish: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays. Red Sox get home-field advantage for the American League wild-card game.

 


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